Solar activity was up for this reporting week, April 6 – 12.

Seven new sunspot groups appeared: one on April 6, another on April 9, two more on April 10, another on April 11, and two more on April 12.

The average daily sunspot number rose from 53.4 to 70.6, and the average daily solar flux increased from 132.5 to 141.

Geomagnetic conditions were calm. The average daily planetary A index dropped from 15 to 7.6, and the middle latitude average dropped from 11.7 to 6.4.

Predicted solar flux is 155 and 160 on April 13 – 14; 165 on April 15 – 16; 160 on April 17 – 18, then 155 and 152 on April 19 – 20; 155 on April 21 – 22; 158 on April 23; 155 on April 24 – 25, then 152, 148, 145, and 142 on April 26 – 29; 140 on April 30 and May 1; 142 and 140 on May 2 – 3; 135 on May 4 – 5, then 130, 140, 145, 150, 152, 155, and 158 on May 6 – 12, and 160 on May 13 – 15.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on April 13 – 15; 12 on April 16; 8 on April 17 – 18, then 5, 10, 15, and 10 on April 19 – 22; 5 on April 23 – 25, then 15 and 18 on April 26 – 27; 15 on April 28 – 30, then 12 and 10 on May 1 – 2; 8 on May 3 – 4; 5 on May 5 – 6, then 8, 10, and 8 on May 7 – 9, and 5 on May 10 – 13.

Spaceweather.com released this news on Wednesday:

“Evidence is mounting that Solar Cycle 25 might peak much earlier than expected. New research by a leading group of solar physicists predicts maximum sunspot activity in late 2023 or early 2024 with a peak that could be twice as strong as the previous solar cycle.”

It is all explained in this paper:

https://bit.ly/41gZnW4

Look in the Spaceweather.com archive for April 12 – 13 to read more.

I noticed some odd 10-meter propagation at 2000 UTC on April 11. While running FT8 and a one wavelength end-fed wire at my home in Seattle, the only stations that heard me, according to pskreporter.info, were one in New Zealand, another in Hawaii, and only five stations in Florida over a 200-mile strip from 2,512 to 2,712 miles. Checking again at 2015 UTC, it was still the same.

Sunspot numbers for April 6 – 12, 2023, were 33, 38, 49, 52, 92, 103, and 127, with a mean of 70.6. 10.7-centimeter flux was 137.1, 136.3, 135.9, 140.3, 139.8, 143.4, and 154, with a mean of 141. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 6, 6, 14, 6, and 4, with a mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 5, 11, 6, and 4, with a mean of 6.4.

HAM is a short documentary that follows a group of Montanan amateur radio enthusiasts that show the loyal community of amateur radio, explore what it means to be a ham, and how they are trying to keep the hobby alive. Thank you to everyone who made this documentary happen, to all of our peers at UM, to the awesome people who let us into their lives, and to everyone who cheered us on the whole way. Special thanks to the School of Visual and Media Arts at the University of Montana and Montana PBS. Produced by students from the School of Visual and Media Arts program at the University of Montana in 2022. Aired on Montana PBS on November 24th, 2022.

Here is the link to that documentary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wt5wZhC5crI

Average solar flux and sunspot numbers went down this week. Sunspot numbers are down by half, from 112.6 last week to 53.4 this week. Average daily solar flux declined from 156.1 to 132.5.

Geomagnetic indicators also declined this week. The average daily planetary A index went from 23.3 last week to 15 this week. Average daily middle latitude A index went down from 13.7 to 11.7.

The middle latitude A index for April 1 was not available, so my guess for it is 11.

Predicted solar flux is 140 on April 6 – 8; 135 on April 9 – 11; 140 on April 12 – 13; 130 on April 14; 135 on April 15 – 17; 140 on April 18 – 20; 135 on April 21 – 23, then 130, 125, and 120 on April 24 – 26; 115 on April 27 – 29; 125 on April 30; 120 on May 1 – 2; 115 on May 3 – 4, and 110 on May 5 – 7.

Predicted planetary A index was 8 on April 6; 5 on April 7 – 10, then 8, 8, and 5 on April 11 – 13; 8 on April 14 – 15, then 12, 10, and 15 on April 16 – 18, then 5, 20, 15, and 10 on April 19 – 22; 5 on April 23 – 25, then 15 and 18 on April 26 – 27; 15 on April 28 – 29; 8 on April 30; 10 on May 1 – 2; 8 on May 3, and 5 on May 4 – 6.

This video from Tamitha Skov features flares and wind, and came out right after last week’s bulletin:

https://youtu.be/F8ERhLiOK88

Sunspot numbers for March 30 through April 5, 2023, were 99, 61, 23, 54, 56, 44, and 37, with a mean of 53.4. 10.7-centimeter flux was 140.3, 129.3, 125.3, 126.9, 133.6, 135.7, and 136.6, with a mean of 132.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 21, 13, 15, 15, 13, and 11, with a mean of 15. Middle latitude A index was 11, 17, 11, 13, 11, 10, and 9, with a mean of 11.7.

Solar activity increased this week. The average daily sunspot number rose from 68 to 112.6, and the average daily solar flux changed from 145.6 to 156.1.

Due to solar wind at the beginning of the reporting week, average daily planetary A index increased from 10.6 to 23.3, while average middle latitude A index went from 8.4 to 13.7. Many reports of aurora came in this week, some down to lower latitudes in North America.

Predicted solar flux is 150 on March 30 through April 1; 140 on April 2 – 3; 130 on April 4 – 5; 132 on April 6 – 8, then 130, 132, 135, and 135 on April 9 – 12, then 140, 145, and 148 on April 13 – 15, then 150, 150, 155, 155, and 158 on April 16 – 20; 160 on April 21 – 23, then 155, 145, and 145 on April 24 – 26, and 135 on April 27 through May 1.

Predicted planetary A index is 18 on March 30 – 31, then 16, 12, 10, and 8 on April 1 – 4, then 5 on April 5 – 9, then 15, 12, 8, and 5 on April 10 13; 8 on April 14 – 15, then 12, 20, 15, and 5 on April 16 – 19, then 20, 15, and 10 on April 20 – 22; 8 on April 23 – 24; 5 on April 25 – 26, then 12, 15, 10, and 8 on April 27 – 30.

Sunspot numbers from March 23 through 29, 2023, were 73, 108, 105, 125, 128, 114, and 135, with a mean of 112.6. 10.7-centimeter flux was 151, 157.5, 160.3, 159.4, 158.2, 158.7, and 147.8, with a mean of 156.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 60, 66, 15, 8, 3, 5, and 6, with a mean of 23.3. Middle latitude A index was 28, 40, 12, 6, 2, 4, and 4, with a mean of 13.7.

I am a HAM that has been into Capitol Forest many times. I’ve been on the dirt back roads in dry, muddy, and snowy conditions. Yesterday’s adventure was no different. I started into the forest on a beautiful late afternoon. I like to go up in elevation so I can operate on HF with minimal power and use the height as the advantage. I decided to go up to a favorite spot I know of near the repeater site. The road was completely dry, and then I saw some small patches of snow. I rounded a corner and the snow became very deep. By the time I made the decision to stop I was in it. I started to back down only to find I was being pushed towards ditch. By the time I went forward to correct I was stuck.

Upon realizing my predicament, I grabbed the HT and called out on the repeater. Luckily it was shortly before a net, so there were plenty of ears listening. Hearing my issue, Duke,KK7EGK and Josh,WA7AW contacted me and soon they formulated a plan. In under 2 hours they had arrived with tools to help get my vehicle freed.  

Now would I have got this response from anywhere else on a late Sunday afternoon? Probably not.

Thank you to everyone on the Capital Peak repeater that assisted with ideas, input, and general uplifting chat. As mentioned I have been into Capitol Forest many times to operate for Parks On The Air (POTA). Although I hold the top spot for this location, It wouldn’t be possible without the fellow HAMs that know the peak roads even better than me. We all make mistakes, and my lesson has been learned.

Thank you Capital Peak Repeater Group!

73 Eric Mallek – K7EVM

Sunspot numbers were lower again this week, with the average declining from 143.6 two weeks ago to 118.7 last week, and now 68 this week. Average daily solar flux sank eight points, from 153.6 last week to 145.6 this week.

Six new sunspot groups emerged over the week: one on March 17, another March 18, three more on March 19, one more on March 21, and another on March 22.

Predicted solar flux is 155, 150, and 145 on March 23 – 25; 140 on March 26 – 27, then 130, 130, and 140 on March 28 – 30; 138 on March 31 through April 1, then 136, 136, and 134 on April 2 – 4; 132 on April 5 – 7; 130 on April 8 – 9, then 132, 135, 138, and 140 on April 10 – 13; 142 on April 14 – 15; 143 on April 16; 140 on April 17 – 18; 142 on April 19 – 21, and 144 on April 22.

Predicted planetary A index is very active over the next few days, at 20, 40, 30, 20, and 15 on March 23 – 27; 8 on March 28 – 29; 20 and 18 on March 30 – 31; 12 on April 1 – 2; 10 and 8 on April 3 – 4; 5 on April 5 – 9, then 15, 12, 8, and 5 on April 10 – 13: 8 on April 14 – 15, then 12, 10, 5, and 5 on April 16 – 19, then 10, 36, 20, 10, and 8 April 20 – 24.

Sunspot numbers for March 16 through 22, 2023, were 84, 58, 35, 73, 75, 70, and 81, with a mean of 68. 10.7-centimeter flux was 135.4, 134.2, 140.3, 142.7, 156.1, 151.6, and 158.9, with a mean of 145.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 8, 10, 13, 8, and 17, with a mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 6, 8, 10, 8, and 14, with a mean of 8.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Six new sunspot groups emerged over the past week: two on March 9, another on March 10, one more on March 12, and another two on March 14.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this week.

Average daily sunspot numbers softened from 143.6 to 118.7, and average daily solar flux went from 181.6 to 153.6.

Predicted solar flux is 142, 150, 148, 146, 148, and 146 on March 16-21; 160 on March 22-23; 155 on March 24-26; 150 on March 27-28; 145 on March 29-30; 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March 31 through April 4; 165 on April 5-8; 170 on April 9-11, and 175, 180, 180, 175, 170, and 165 on April 12-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 25 and 10 on March 16-17; 5 on March 18-19; 8 on March 20-21; 5 on March 22-23; 12, 16, 26, 18, 10, 8, 24, and 22 on March 24-31; 16 on April 1-2; 14, 12, 8, and 10 on April 3-6; 8 on April 7-8; 5, 8, 22, and 8 on April 9-12; 5 on April 13-14, and 8 and 16 on April 15-16.

Before Friday’s bulletin, check out the information on this DR2W propagation modeling site, recently from WB6MPH and last fall, from KB2S:

https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don’t forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

Sunspot numbers for March 9 through 15, 2023, were 155, 135, 126, 135, 87, 97, and 96, with a mean of 118.7. 10.7 cm flux was 178.8, 171.2, 157.4, 150, 143.3, 138.5, and 135.7, with a mean of 153.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 11, 7, 8, 3, 17, and 29, with a mean of 13.1. Middle latitude A index was 14, 10, 5, 6, 2, 12, and 19, with a mean of 9.9.

So far this month, two new sunspot groups appeared on March 1, one on March 2, three on March 3, one on March 5, two on March 6, and one on March 7.

The average daily sunspot numbers rose from 126.3 to 143.6.

The average daily solar flux changed from 158.2 to 181.6.

The average daily planetary A index declined from 27.7 to 14.6, and the average middle latitude numbers went from 18.9 to 10.7, reflecting the quieter conditions following the upsets of the week before.

The Dominion Radio Observatory, the source for solar flux data, is way up at 49.5 degrees north longitude in eastern British Columbia in Penticton. For much of the year the sun is low in the sky, so all winter they do their thrice daily readings at 1800, 2000, and 2200 UTC. But on March 1, they shifted over to 1700, 2000, and 2300 UTC. The local noon (2000 UTC) reading is the official solar flux for the day.

You can see the data and the dates here:

https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

The vernal equinox, when the Northern and Southern hemispheres are bathed in equal solar radiation, is less than 2 weeks away.

Predicted solar flux shows values peaking now, and again on March 16 – 19.

Flux values are expected at 178, 175, 172, and 165 on March 9 – 12; 170 on March 13 – 15; 175, 180, 180, 175, 170, and 165 on March 16 – 21; 160 on March 22 – 23; 155 on March 24 – 26; 150 on March 27 – 28; 145 on March 29 – 30; 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March 31 through April 4, and 165 on April 5 – 8.

The predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 8, 10, and 8 on March 9 – 13; 5 on March 14 – 15; 8 on March 16 – 17; 5, 8, and 16 on March 18 – 20; 5 on March 21 – 23; 12, 16, 26, 18, and 10 on March 24 – 28; 8, 24, and 16 on March 29 – 31; 20 on April 1 – 2; 16 and 8 on April 3 – 4, and 5 on April 5 – 10.

Dr. Tony Phillips of https://spaceweather.com posted this animation of sunspot AR3245 splitting, which was captured by NASA’s SDO:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/07mar23/splitup.gif

AR3245 is seen in the SE quadrant (lower left). Sunspot numbers for March 2 through 8 were 103, 133, 122, 137, 173, 191, and 146, with a mean of 143.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 168.8, 190.9, 181.6, 179.8, 188, 180.3, and 181.9, with a mean of 181.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 22, 15, 22, 15, 11, and 8, with a mean of 14.6. The middle latitude A index was 8, 16, 10, 17, 11, 7, and 6, with a mean of 10.7.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.Share your reports and observations

This was a busy week for geomagnetic storms. A solar wind stream from an equatorial hole and a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seemingly blew geomagnetic numbers off the scale, with the planetary A index on Monday hitting 94. An aurora was visible as far south as Colorado.

This week, the source of the 10.7-centimeter solar flux from the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in Kaleden, British Columbia, was again saturated by solar wind on February 25, and the measurement was 279.3. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) corrected this to 152, which I thought was a bit too low. The other recent saturation was on February 17, at 343.1, but for some reason, the NOAA let this stand.

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 107 to 126.3, but average daily solar flux declined from 162.4 to 158.2.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 10.6 to 27.7.

Over the next few weeks, it appears that solar flux values should hit a peak around March 17 – 18.

Predicted solar flux is 164, 162, and 158 on March 2 – 4; 154 on March 5 – 8; 165 on March 9 – 12; 170 on March 13 – 15; 175 on March 16; 180 on March 17 – 18; 175, 170, and 165 on March 19 – 21; 160 on March 22 – 23; 155 on March 24 – 26; 150 on March 27 – 28; 145 on March 29 – 30, and 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March 31 through April 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 12, 18, 24, 14, and 8 on March 2 – 8; 5 on March 9 – 14; 15, 8, 8, 5, 8, and 15 on March 15 – 20; 5 on March 21 – 23; 12, 16, 56, 32, 16, and 10 on March 24 – 29; 8 on March 30 – 31, and 16, 18, and 15 on April 1 – 3.

The predicted A index of 56 and 32 on March 26 – 27 suggests a return of this week’s disturbance in the next solar rotation.

Newsweek reported a radio blackout at the following link:

https://bit.ly/3YsJREJ

Sky & Telescope also reported on aurora season:

https://bit.ly/3ZbC1As

The News Tribune wrote a story about the northern lights:

https://bit.ly/3ymZrqR

The above story features western Washington, where I live. Unfortunately, the sky was overcast, but folks in eastern Washington were able to see the aurora. Remember that many of the images you see were from cameras with a long exposure time, which makes them much brighter than what can be seen with the naked eye.

Thanks to spaceweather.com for this NASA video clip of sunspot group AR3234 growing as it comes over our sun’s eastern limb:

https://bit.ly/3J1IIiJ

Sunspot numbers for February 23 through March 1, 2023, were 108, 130, 129, 120, 192, 100, and 105, with a mean of 107. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 148.2, 164.1, 152, 159, 161.2, 160.9, and 162, with a mean of 162.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 6, 10, 26, 94, 28, and 8, with a mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 16, 4, 9, 18, 60, 19, and 6, with a mean of 8.4.

Solar activity plunged this reporting week, although there was some excitement on February 17, 2023, when the solar flux was reported as a record breaking 343.1.

Because it was the noon reading, it is still reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as the solar flux, but this was a false reading when the Penticton detectors were overloaded by energy from a solar flare.

So, in this report, I have chosen the 1800 UTC flux value, which was 165.

The average daily sunspot number plunged from 182.4 to 107, while the average solar flux dropped from 196.4 to 162.4. If I had not changed the 343.1 to 165, the solar flux average would have been 187.9.

Six new sunspots emerged over the week, one on February 16, one each on February 18 and 19, and three more on February 20.

The solar flux prediction for the next month shows a peak value of 180 for March 7 – 13.

Predicted values are 150 on February 23; 148 on February 24 – 25; 146 on February 26 – 27; 142 on February 28; 140 on March 1; 145 on March 2 – 3; 150, 155, and 165 on March 4 – 6; 180 on March 7 – 13; 175 and 170 on March 14 – 15; 160 on March 16 – 17; 155, 160, 150, 140, and 135 on March 18 – 22; 125 on March 23 – 24; 130 on March 25, and 140 on March 26 – 28.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on February 23 – 24; 10, 5, and 12 on February 25 – 27; 18, 16, and 8 on February 28 – March 2; 5 on March 3 – 4; 15, 18, 15, and 8 on March 5 – 8; 5 on March 9 – 14; 15 on March 15; 8 on March 16 – 17; 5 on March 18 – 20; 10 on March 21 – 23; 5 on March 24 – 25, and 8 on March 26 – 27.

Jon Jones, N0JK, wrote:

“There was a nice 6-meter F2 opening on February 16.

I logged [the] HC1MD/2 grid FI57 on 50 MHz FT8 at 1916 UTC. I found this opening by checking the DXMaps website. HC1MD/2 had a strong, steady signal. I operated from home using an attic dipole antenna. [I] also logged HC2FG.

Other area 6-meter operators such as WQ0P (EM19) and KF0M (EM17) also worked stations in Chile. The K index was 4, which I suspect may have helped.

On February 18, a number of North American stations worked Robert Felicite, 3B9FR, around 1600 UTC on 6-meter FT8.

(3B9FR is on Rodrigues Island in the Indian Ocean, off the southeast coast of South Africa)

Conditions were great [during] the ARRL [International] DX CW Contest on 10 meters. I operated [for] a couple of hours [on] Sunday morning [while] running 5 W and a quarter-wave whip fixed mobile. [I] worked [more than one] hundred stations

Europe, the Caribbean, South America, and Africa. Many of the Europeans were over S-9.”

Sunspot numbers for February 16 – 22 were 101, 86, 109, 112, 135, 106, and 100, with a mean of 107. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 163.2, 165, 167.2, 169, 159.8, 160.9, and 151.9, with a mean of 162.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 6, 6, 7, 8, 17, and 6, with a mean of 10.6. The middle latitude A index was 21, 4, 5, 4, 6, 15, and 4, with a mean of 8.4.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.