This week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin, ARLP010:

So far this month, two new sunspot groups appeared on March 1, one on March 2, three on March 3, one on March 5, two on March 6, and one on March 7.

The average daily sunspot numbers rose from 126.3 to 143.6.

The average daily solar flux changed from 158.2 to 181.6.

The average daily planetary A index declined from 27.7 to 14.6, and the average middle latitude numbers went from 18.9 to 10.7, reflecting the quieter conditions following the upsets of the week before.

The Dominion Radio Observatory, the source for solar flux data, is way up at 49.5 degrees north longitude in eastern British Columbia in Penticton. For much of the year the sun is low in the sky, so all winter they do their thrice daily readings at 1800, 2000, and 2200 UTC. But on March 1, they shifted over to 1700, 2000, and 2300 UTC. The local noon (2000 UTC) reading is the official solar flux for the day.

You can see the data and the dates here:

https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

The vernal equinox, when the Northern and Southern hemispheres are bathed in equal solar radiation, is less than 2 weeks away.

Predicted solar flux shows values peaking now, and again on March 16 – 19.

Flux values are expected at 178, 175, 172, and 165 on March 9 – 12; 170 on March 13 – 15; 175, 180, 180, 175, 170, and 165 on March 16 – 21; 160 on March 22 – 23; 155 on March 24 – 26; 150 on March 27 – 28; 145 on March 29 – 30; 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March 31 through April 4, and 165 on April 5 – 8.

The predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 8, 10, and 8 on March 9 – 13; 5 on March 14 – 15; 8 on March 16 – 17; 5, 8, and 16 on March 18 – 20; 5 on March 21 – 23; 12, 16, 26, 18, and 10 on March 24 – 28; 8, 24, and 16 on March 29 – 31; 20 on April 1 – 2; 16 and 8 on April 3 – 4, and 5 on April 5 – 10.

Dr. Tony Phillips of https://spaceweather.com posted this animation of sunspot AR3245 splitting, which was captured by NASA’s SDO:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/07mar23/splitup.gif

AR3245 is seen in the SE quadrant (lower left). Sunspot numbers for March 2 through 8 were 103, 133, 122, 137, 173, 191, and 146, with a mean of 143.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 168.8, 190.9, 181.6, 179.8, 188, 180.3, and 181.9, with a mean of 181.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 22, 15, 22, 15, 11, and 8, with a mean of 14.6. The middle latitude A index was 8, 16, 10, 17, 11, 7, and 6, with a mean of 10.7.

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