Work party 11-26-22

A few pictures provided by James KK7CLU.

Solar Update 12-1-22

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin:

No new sunspots appeared over the past reporting week, November 24 – 30. But sunspots were visible every day.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined, with the average daily sunspot number dropping from 66 to 46, and average daily solar flux from 116.5 to 108.3.

Solar wind streams from coronal holes kept geomagnetic indicators active, with average daily planetary A index jumping from 5.1 to 18.6, and middle latitude A index from 3.4 to 14.

On Wednesday, November 30, the magnetometer at Fairbanks, Alaska, showed the college A index at 54, which is the highest value over the past month. No doubt this produced aurora.

The current prediction from Wednesday night has solar flux reaching a peak of 130 on December 12, rather than the 135 recently predicted.

Look for flux values of 115, 115, and 120 on December 1 – 3; 125 on December 4 – 10; 130, 115, and 110 on December 11 – 13; 105 on December 14 – 17; 100 on December 18 – 23; 95, 105, and 110 on December 24 – 26; 115 on December 27 – 30, and 120 on December 31.

The planetary A index prediction is 25, 20, 10, 12, and 8 on December 1 – 5; 5 on December 6 – 7; 8 on December 8 – 9; 5 on December 10 – 16; 10 on December 17 – 18; 5 on December 19 – 21; 20, 15, 12, and 10 on December 22 – 25; and 15, 18, 10, 18, and 10 on December 26 – 30.

Solar wind news:

https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW

Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30 were 61, 55, 60, 56, 52, 25, and 12, with a mean of 46. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 109.7, 108.5, 107.1, 107.2, 107, 107.9, and 111, with a mean of 108.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 16, 15, 24, 25, and 24, with a mean of 18.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 12, 10, 18, 20, and 17, with a mean of 14.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

The K7RA Solar Update

11/28/2022

ARRL Headquarters was closed for the holiday last Thursday and Friday, so this bulletin is delayed until Monday, but has fresh content from Sunday night.

At 2228 UTC on November 27, the Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning. “A coronal hole wind stream is expected to induce G1 periods of geomagnetic activity from mid-30 – November to 01-December.”

Solar activity softened over the past reporting week, November 17 – 23. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 72.3 to 66, and average daily solar flux from 137.2 to 116.5.

In the four days since the end of the reporting week, the average daily solar flux has sunk to 106. But we look forward to rising solar flux, peaking at 135 on December 12 and again on January 8.

In the 2021 ARLP047 bulletin, average daily sunspot number was only 30.9, and solar flux was 80.8, so we can see Cycle 25 is progressing nicely.

Average daily planetary A index rose slightly from 4.4 to 5.1, and middle latitude numbers declined from 3.9 to 3.4.

Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 16, one more on November 17, and another on November 18. Two more appeared, the first on November 21 and the second on November 23. No new sunspots appeared in the following four days. The peak sunspot number was 83 on November 21.

Predicted solar flux is 105 and 110 on November 28 – 29; 115 on November 30 through December 3; 120 on December 4; 125 on December 5 – 10; 130, 135, and 130 on December 11 – 13; 125 on December 14 – 17; 120 on December 18; 125 on December 19 – 24; 120 on December 25 – 31; 125 on January 1 – 6, 2023, then 130 and 135 on January 7 – 8.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15, and 18 on November 28 – 30; 10, 18, and 10 on December 1 – 3; 5 on December 4 – 7; 8 on December 8 – 9; 5 on December 10 – 16; 10, 26, 15, and 8 on December 17 – 20; 10, 15, 8, and 10 on December 21 – 24; 8 on December 25 – 27; 12, 18, and 8 on December 28 – 30; 5 on December 31 through January 3, 2023, then 8 on January 4 – 5.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote on November 24:

“Over the past seven days, I have been reminded again of the Woody Allen quote, ‘If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans.’

At first, the authors of the forecasts of the Earth’s magnetic field activity (including Tomas Bayer of the Budkov Geomagnetic Observatory) predicted an increase to the level of a disturbance on November 17. After that, most of the authors already agreed on November 19. In the following days, the forecasts were pushed forward, finally to 21 – 22 November. And was there anything? Nothing! Solar activity dropped slightly. The geomagnetic field was quiet except for November 18 and 21. The development of shortwave propagation was erratic, but not bad, with improvements on November 17, 19, and 24.

For forecasting, we can sometimes use observations obtained using a technique called helioseismology. Its map of the sun’s far side on November 22 showed a huge active region. The corresponding heliographic longitude will appear at the eastern limb of the solar disk in about 10 days. After that, we expect an increase in activity and, of course, an improvement in shortwave propagation.”

Occasionally I see a solar report in overseas tabloids that makes me laugh out loud, or LOL as they say.

Here is one. I love the part that says our Sun is the largest star in our solar system. No kidding! Normal solar activity becomes an existential threat.

https://bit.ly/3EK9R6o

That was published on November 25, and no doomsday yet.

More dire warnings from the same source:

https://bit.ly/3uc0uYd

This one is pretty deep, but is about real science:

https://bit.ly/3ODAKxs

I have not seen a new video from Tamitha Skov, but you can check our Space Weather Woman’s YouTube videos at https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx .

Jon Jones, N0JK writes from Kansas:

“There was an extensive and unexpected sporadic-E opening November 19 early in the morning. I noted stations on Es about an hour after local sunrise here in Kansas.

I logged stations in W3 and W4 on 6 meters on FT8. Signals were good at times, the opening lasted here until about 1700 UTC.

Sunspot AR3150 produced a M1-class solar flare at 1256 UTC. A strong pulse of extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized Earth’s upper atmosphere. The sporadic-E appeared around 30 minutes later. Perhaps this helped spark the Es? This has been the only significant sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz so far in November 2022.

The opening was fortuitous. Larry Lambert, N0LL was operating portable from rare grid DN90. He made many 6-meter contacts on sporadic-E.

The ARRL Phone Sweepstakes was on, and sporadic-E may have helped contestants make contacts on 20, 15, and 10 meters.

Today (November 27, 2022) I got on 10 meters Sunday afternoon of the CQ WW CW contest. Stations in Hawaii were very loud at 2240 UTC. I logged 4 Hawaiians in 6 minutes running just 5 watts and a magnet-mount whip on a BBQ grill. 10 can be amazing at times.”

N0JK writes the monthly VHF column, “The world Above 50 MHz” in QST.

Danny, K7SS reported on the Western Washington DX Club email reflector that he worked single band 15 meters in the CQ World Wide CW DX contest. “Great to have 15 open again. Not quite at its peak, and never had a good opening to EU, except for OH, SM, and LA over the top both days.

Most EU worked scatter path to the E/SE. Thank goodness for ASIA action! lots of JA BY YB folks.”

Danny lives in Seattle, where I live, and we have always had an amazing pipeline to Japan.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for November 17 through 23, 2022, were 64, 55, 59, 72, 83, 61, and 68, with a mean of 66. 10.7 cm flux was 119.2, 116, 115.1, 119.1, 117, 115.7, and 113.3, with a mean of 116.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 7, 5, 6, 10, 3, and 3, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 1, 5, 4, 3, 8, 2, and 1, with a mean of 3.4.

Tad’s Solar Report

ARRL thanks Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, for the weekly ARRL Propagation Bulletin. Due to this week’s early Thanksgiving issue of the ARRL Letter, the next K7RA Solar Update will be posted to ARRL News on Monday, November 28.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the propagation page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports, observations, tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

Solar Report 11/17/22

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin:

Sunspot numbers and solar flux did not seem to correlate this week. Flux rose, and spots fell.

The average daily sunspot number declined from 79.8 to 72.3, but average solar flux numbers rose from 129.9 to 137.2. This tells me that the number and area of sunspots was less, but the 10.7-centimeter radiation from those spots increased.

A new sunspot emerged on November 10, another on November 13, and two more on November 16, the last day of our reporting week, which runs Thursday through the following Wednesday.

In our bulletin from 1 year ago, the average daily sunspot number was only 36.4, and solar flux was 89.1, so if the latest activity seems a bit lackluster, we can see that the sunspot cycle is making progress and is expected to peak around July 2025.

We get better HF propagation at higher frequencies when X-rays from the sun are more intense, and they correlate with sunspot numbers and the 10.7-centimeter radiation. This radiation charges the ionosphere, increasing density.

Back in 1957 – 1959, at the peak of Solar Cycle 19, the radiation was so intense that (I’ve been told) 10 meters was open worldwide, around the clock. Cycle 19, had, by far, the highest recorded sunspot count in history, with nothing like it before or since.

Here is the prediction for solar flux: 133, 125, and 122 on November 17 – 19; 120 on November 20 – 21; 122 on November 22; 125 on November 23 – 24; 115 on November 25 – 26; 120 and 125 on November 27 – 28; 130 on November 29 – 30; 135 on December 1 – 12; 120 and 110 on December 13 – 14, and 105 on December 15 – 18.

Predicted planetary A index, which gives us a clue into possible geomagnetic unrest, is 5, 8, 16, 20, and 12 on November 17 – 21; 8, 5, 8, 15, and 18 on November 22 – 26; 12, 8, 5, 5, 12, 18, and 8 on November 27 through December 3; 5 on December 4 – 7; 8 on December 8 – 9; 5 on December 10 – 11; 10 on December 12 – 13; 5 on December 14 – 16; 15 on December 17, and 18 on December 18 – 19.

The ARRL 10-Meter Contest is coming up, and will take place during the weekend of December 10 – 11. Expect better propagation than we saw in 2020 and 2021. Although predicted solar flux is not high, the prediction above shows the highest solar flux (135) over that weekend, and planetary A index at a low value of 5, indicating predicted geomagnetic stability. But of course, things may change.

Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16 were 79, 57, 65, 74, 77, 69, and 85, with a mean of 72.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 138.7, 137.6, 138.2, 137, 141.5, 134.2, and 132.9, with a mean of 137.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 9, 5, 7, 4, 2, and 2, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 3, 6, 3, 2, and 2, with a mean of 3.9.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.