Solar report for 1-20-22

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar and geomagnetic activity increased this week. The average daily sunspot number rose by 52 points, from 42.4 to 94.4. The sunspot number peaked at 120 last Saturday.

Average daily solar flux went from 101.6 to 112, peaking at 119.4 on Sunday. Average daily planetary A index rose from 6.1 to 15.6, and average middle latitude numbers went from 4.1 to 11.3.

As reported by Spaceweather.com, sunspot AR2929 erupted at 1744 UTC on January 18 with an M1.5 class solar flare, blasting a pulse of X-rays and causing a shortwave radio blackout. I observed the blackout while using FT8 on 10 meters to observe propagation using https://www.pskreporter.info/. Just before the blast I could see my 10 meter signal reported by stations on the East Coast, but suddenly I saw no reports. The surprising part was during that period no local stations could copy my signal either!

Predicted solar flux is 102, 98, 94 and 92 on January 20 – 23; 90 on January 24 – 26; 100 and 95 on January 27 – 28; 90 on January 29 – 30; 95 on January 31; 100 and 105 on February 1 – 2; 110 on February 3 – 10; 115 on February 11 – 14; 110, 108, and 106 on February 15 – 17; 102 on February 18 – 21; 100 on February 22 – 23; 95 on February 24, and 90 on February 25 – 26. Flux values may rise to 110 after March 2.

Predicted planetary A index is 16 on January 20; 8 on January 21 – 22; 12 on January 23; 8 on January 24 – 26; 5 on January 27; 10 on January 28 – 30; 5 on January 31 – February 3; then 15 and 10 on February 4 – 5; 5 on February 6 – 9; 12, 15, 12, 18, and 10 on February 10 – 14; 5 on February 15 – 19; 8 on February 20 – 22; 5 on February 23, and 10 on February 24 – 26.

Sunspot numbers for January 13 – 19 were 111, 112, 120, 103, 99, 59, and 57, with a mean of 94.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 105.5, 110.2, 115.6, 119.4, 113.5, 114.5, and 105.3, with a mean of 112. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 15, 22, 19, 9, 18, and 23, with a mean of 15.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 10, 17, 16, 6, 12, and 15, with a mean of 11.3.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Tad Cook Solar Report 1-13-22

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Two new sunspot groups emerged on January 9 and another showed up on January 12. Average daily sunspot numbers rose six points this week to 42.4, and average daily solar flux increased from 91.4 to 101.6.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index declining from 7.7 to 6.1, and average daily middle latitude A index from 6 to 4.1.

The higher A index values on January 8 and 9 were from a G-1 class storm caused by co-rotating interaction regions.

Predicted solar flux for the next month shows values peaking at 120 on January 21 – 24 and again around mid-February. Predicted values are 104 and 106 on January 13 – 14; 108 on January 15 – 17; 106 on January 18 – 20; 120 on January 21 – 24; 110 on January 25; 100 on January 26 – 27; 95 and 90 on January 28 – 29; 85 on January 30 – February 1; 95 and 105 on February 2 – 3; 100 on February 4 – 5; 102 on February 6 – 7; 105 on February 8; 110 on February 9 – 10; 115 on February 11 – 12, and 120 on February 13 – 20.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 13 – 14;14, 24, 12, and 8 on January 15 – 18; 5 on January 19 – 22; 10 on January 23; 8 on January 24 – 26; 5 on January 27; 10 on January 28 – 30; 5 on January 31 – February 3; 15, 10, and 8 on February 4 – 6; 5 on February 7 – 11; 12, 10, and 8 on February 12 – 14, and 5 on February 15 – 18.

Sunspot numbers for January 6 through 12 were 35, 38, 31, 36, 38, 51, and 68, with a mean of 42.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 93.7, 107.3, 102.4, 102.1, 102.2, 100, and 103.2, with a mean of 101.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 2, 14, 10, 6, 5, and 4, with a mean of 6.1. Middle latitude A index was 2, 1, 9, 7, 4, 3, and 3, with a mean of 4.1.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

K7RA Solar Update 1-6-22

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity was quite a bit lower this week, but new sunspot groups emerged on December 31, January 1, January 4, and January 5. Average daily sunspot number dropped from 110.1 to 36.4, while average daily solar flux went from 124 to 91.4.

Geomagnetic activity was still fairly quiet, even with a number of flares and CMEs, with average daily planetary A index changing from 6.4 to 7.7, and average middle latitude A index from 4.4 to 6.

Predicted solar flux over the next month shows 10.7-centimeter flux values peaking at 120 on January 16 – 24 and again at 120 in mid – February. The daily predicted values are 84 and 88 on January 6 – 7; 92 on January 8 – 12; 115 on January 13 – 15; 120 on January 16 – 24; 110 on January 25; 100 on January 26 – 27; 95 and 90 on January 28 – 29; 88 on January 30 – 31; 85 on February 1 – 5; 90, 95, and 100 on February 6 – 8, and 115 on February 9 – 11.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 6 – 8; 12, 14, and 8 on January 9 – 11; 5 on January 12 – 14; 8 and 12 on January 15 – 16; back to 8 on January 17 – 18; 5 on January 19 – 22; 10 on January 23; 8 on January 24 – 26; 5 and 10 on January 27 – 28; 8 on January 29 – 30; 5 on January 31 – February 6; 10 on February 7 – 8, and 5 on February 9 – 10.

Sunspot numbers for December 30 – January 5 were 77, 53, 52, 25, 12, 12, and 24, with a mean of 36.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 102.4, 101.5, 93.9, 89, 84, 85.5, and 83.7, with a mean of 91.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 11, 10, 12, 6, and 3, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 2, 9, 7, 9, 5, and 3, with a mean of 6.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA

Solar report 12-30-21

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity persisted over the reporting week, although numbers were a bit lower. Average daily sunspot number declined from 124.4 to 110.1. Average daily solar flux slipped just slightly from 125 to 124. Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 6.4, and average middle latitude numbers changed from 6.4 to 4.4.

New sunspot groups appeared on December 25, 26, and 28.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is expected to peak at 130 on January 18 – 19, and the numbers are 110, 108, and 105 on December 30 – January 1; 104 on January 2 – 3; 100 on January 4; 98 on January 5 – 6; then 92, 100, 105, and 110 on January 7 – 10; 115 on January 11 – 13; 118 on January 14 – 15; 122 and 128 on January 16 – 17; 130 on January 18 – 19; 128, 125, and 120 on January 20 – 22; 125 on January 23 – 24; 122 on January 25; 120 on January 26 – 27; 115, 110, 100, and 95 on January 28 – 31; 90 on February 1 – 2, and 92 and 100 on February 3 – 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on December 30 – 31, then 6, 12, and 8 on January 1 – 3; 5 on January 4 – 10; 10 on January 11 – 12; 5 on January 13 – 14; 8 and 12 on January 15 – 16; 8 on January 17 – 18; 5 on January 19 – 22; 8, 10, 8, and 8 on January 23 – 26, and 5 on January 27 – February 6.

Sunspot numbers for December 23 – 29 were 143, 145, 117, 95, 85, 107, and 79, with a mean of 110.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 129.8, 126.2, 130.7, 125.4, 123.9, 120.5, and 111.4, with a mean of 124. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 7, 3, 10, 9, and 7, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 5, 2, 8, 6, and 5, with a mean of 4.4.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website

SPECIAL BULLETIN: ARRL to Oppose Forest Service Administrative Fees for Amateur Facilities

Even though we are a non-affiliated group you might want to read this bulletin from the ARRL…..

ARRL to Oppose Forest Service Administrative Fees for Amateur Facilities

The US Forest Service is proposing to implement a statutorily required annual fee for new and existing communications use authorizations to cover the costs of administering its authorization program. ARRL plans to vigorously oppose the imposition of the proposed fees on Amateur Radio.

The Forest Service proposal results from requirements set forth in the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 (aka “the Farm Bill”). Specifically, section 8705(c)(3)(b) of the Farm Bill directs the Forest Service to issue regulations that require fees for issuing communications use authorizations based on the cost to the Agency for maintenance or other activities to be performed by the Agency “as a result of the location or modification of a communications facility.”

The Forest Service is responsible for managing Federal lands and authorizes the use and occupancy of National Forest System (NFS) lands for communications facilities that provide communications services for adjacent rural and urban communities. The Agency said in its proposal that it administers more than 3,700 special use authorizations on NFS lands for infrastructure that supports more than 10,000 wireless communications uses at 1,367 communications sites.

According to the Forest Service Notice published in the December 22,2021 issue of the Federal Register, revenues from the proposed fee, “would provide the funds necessary to support a more modernized, efficient, and enhanced communications use program,” and will “cover the costs of administering the Agency’s communications use program.” Costs, as laid out in section 8705(f)(4) of the Farm Bill, may include expenditures for such things as “on-site reviews of communications sites, developing communications site management plans, hiring and training personnel for the communications use program, conducting internal and external outreach for and national oversight of the communications use program, and obtaining or improving access to communications sites on NFS lands.”

ARRL encourages Amateur Radio licensees to file comments opposing the imposition of the proposed administrative fee on Amateur Radio users. Comments must be received in writing by no later than February 22, 2022. Comments may be submitted online at the Federal Rulemaking Portal or via USPS mail to Director, Lands & Realty Management Staff, 201 14th Street SW, Washington, DC 20250-1124, and must include the identifier “RIN 0596-AD44.”