A little snow at the Peak!

BRRR at the Peak.

Jeremy AG7WT shot these two pics showing the ice loading on the tower!

Once a month Breakfast

Although not an official function of the repeater group You are all invited to get with the group once a month (First Saturday of the month) at the Denny’s restaurant for breakfast, starting at 8:00 a.m. Located at the intersection of Martin Way and College St. in Lacey, WA. Click here for a map of the location.

42nd ELECTRONICS SHOW & SWAP MEET

— Saturday, March 9, 2024 —
See Flyer for Advance ticket sales and 2024 seller tables —
— Ticket Sales open at 8:00 AM; Doors open at 9:00 AM —
— Dealers Close by 3:00 PM —


Held at the
PAVILION EXHIBITION HALL
WASHINGTON STATE FAIRGROUNDS
9th Ave SE. & Meridian ST S.
PUYALLUP, WA 98372


The Mike & Key Electronics Show & Swap Meet is one of the largest annual Amateur Radio events in the Pacific Northwest.  It is held on the Washington State Fairgrounds during the first part of March, up to 3,000 Hams and non-Hams alike are drawn to a modern 40,000 square foot facility located on two floors of the Exhibition Hall with room for over 300 tables for selling radios, computers, and general electronics equipment. Lots of radio and computer related items are available for sale and/or trade. If you have any questions, please email swapmeet@mikeandkey.org.

There is an on-site snack bar and a consignment area.  License examinations are also given on-site.

To successfully conduct this event each year requires the participation of the entire Club membership.

New Meeting Notice

Annual Meeting update

Due to the recent weather conditions, the room where we were going to have the meeting will not be available for our use. A water line broke flooding another room. The room where we hold the meeting is being used for storage and office. It will take some time to get this repaired. Keep checking back for more updates.

1/12/24 Solar report

Eight new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week, January
4-10.

Four new sunspot groups appeared on January 5, another two on
January 7 and two more on January 9.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 63.4 to 146.1, and average
daily solar flux went from 141.9 to 163.3.

Geomagnetic indicators declined, with planetary A index going from
6.7 to 4.9, and middle latitude numbers from 5.1 to 4.3.

Predicted solar flux over the near term is 192, 190 and 186 on
January 12-14, 188 on January 15-16, then 186 and 184 on January
17-18, 150 on January 19-21, then 145 and 140 on January 22-23, 135
on January 24-26, then 130 and 135 on January 27-28, 140 on January
29-31, then 150, 160, 165 and 150 on February 1-4, 155 on February
5-6, 160 on February 7, then 155 on February 8-10, then 160, 165,
160 and 155 on February 11-14, and 150 on February 15-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 12, 8 on January 13-14,
5, 5, 10 and 8 on January 15-18, 5 on January 19-27, 8 on January
28-30, 5 on January 31 through February 3, then 10, 10 and 8 on
February 4-6, and 5 on February 7-22.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth’s
Ionosphere – January 11, 2024 from OK1HH:

“Since the beginning of the 25th Solar Cycle (December 2019), we
observed 782 sunspot groups, and almost half of them (361) last
year. Most forecasters believe that the solar maximum will occur in
2024.

“The exception is the Bureau of Meteorology Australian Space Weather
Forecasting Centre, whose ‘OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES’ table, published on January 4, already showed the probable highest SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER = 126.4 last November.

“It should fall further until R = 15.5 in December 2029. But I
believe solar activity will continue to rise and that we have a
second maximum ahead of us, no later than 2025.

“Now there is usually at least one active region on the Sun with an
unstable magnetic field ‘beta-gamma,’ capable of producing flares of
moderate magnitude, possibly with CMEs.

“Any large flares would be the exception, and proton flares would be
even more of an exception.

“Among the more significant moderate-magnitude eruptions accompanied
by CMEs is the M3.8/2n class event of 4 January at 0155 UTC, which
produced the Dellinger event (SWF or Shortwave Fadeout) over
Australia and the surrounding Pacific Ocean. There was silence at
frequencies below 20 MHz for more than 30 minutes. This flare took
place in the northeastern solar disk (N04E39), while the CME missed
the Earth.

“Other developments on the Sun were quieter, which contributed to a
relatively long interval of geomagnetic quiet since 4 January
onwards. At the same time, the intensity of solar radiation
increased. The result was progressively improving shortwave
propagation. But seven major active regions can now be counted on
the Sun’s far side. Once they emerge onto the solar disk the
situation will change.”

NASA’s SDO reveals hidden solar storm threat to Earth:

https://bit.ly/3vxMJXU

Interesting application for use with Mobile Radio:

https://www.ve2dbe.com/

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don’t forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this page:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for January 4 through 10 2024 were 64, 121, 149,
171, 152, 183, and 183, with a mean of 146.1. 10.7 cm flux was
125.8, 152.7, 159.4, 167.1, 176.2, 175.9, and 186, with a mean of
163.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 3, 3, 4, 6, and 7,
with a mean of 4.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 2, 3, 4, 5,
and 7, with a mean of 4.3.

Solar report 1/5/24

Only four new sunspot groups emerged over the past week: one on December 28, 2023, another on December 31, and two more on January 2 and 3, 2024.

Solar indices sank. The average daily sunspot number declined from 114.4 to 63.4, and the average daily solar flux declined from 172.6 to 141.9.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 8.4 to 6.7, and middle latitude numbers rose from 4 to 5.1.

Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks looks moderate. It will be 145 on January 4 – 5; 150 on January 6 – 8; 155 on January 9; 160 on January 10 – 11; 155 on January 12 – 14; 160, 165, 160, and 155 on January 15 – 18; 150 on January 19 – 21; 145 and 140 on January 22 – 23, and 135 on January 24 – 26.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on January 4; 5 on January 5 – 7; 10 on January 8 – 10, and 5 on January 11 – 26.

Solar activity looks soft as of late, but perhaps we will see a double peak during this cycle.

See an illustration comparing progress in the current cycle to the last cycle, month by month since each solar minimum, at: https://bit.ly/4aMBefh. The second chart from the top of the page is labeled “Solar Cycle Comparison.” The red line is the last cycle, and it was probably smoothed by monthly averages. The darker blue-green line is probably a conventional moving average with the points on the line smoothed over a year. The yellow line is the current cycle — also probably smoothed over a year — and the lighter blue-green line is the current cycle, which was probably smoothed with monthly numbers. This data looks promising for future activity.

Sunspot numbers for December 28, 2023, through January 3, 2024, were 83, 92, 48, 55, 44, 59, and 63, with a mean of 63.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 146.7, 142.9, 139.7, 146.2, 135.7, 142.1, and 140.2, with a mean of 141.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 6, 5, 4, 10, 8, and 11, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 4, 2, 6, 8, and 8, with a mean of 5.1.

12/29/23 Solar report

The recent reporting week, December 21-27, saw counter-intuitive solar numbers, with solar flux rising but sunspot numbers in decline. This happens from time to time.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 137.4 to 114.4. Only three new sunspot groups emerged, two on December 22, and one on December 27. On Thursday, December 28 one more sunspot emerged and the sunspot number increased from 78 to 83.

Average daily solar flux rose from 162.7 to 172.6.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 145 on December 29-30, 140 on December 31 to January 1, 2024, 135 on January 2-4, 150 on January 5-7, 155 on January 8-11, then 150, 155, 160, 170 and 175 on January 12-16, 180 on January 17-21, then 170, 165, 162, 155 and 145 on January 22-26, then 140 on January 27-30, and 150 on January 31 to February 3.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, 8, 16, and 8 on December 29 through January 2, 2024, then 5 on January 3-7, then 10, 10 and 8 on  January 8-10, then 5 on January 11-25, then 12, 10, 10 and 8 on January 26-29, and 5 on January 30 through February 3.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth’s Ionosphere, December 28, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

“There are active regions on the Sun that may not even be large, but whose magnetic configuration points to the possibility of solar flares, up to moderately important ones. CMEs are no exception, but they may not hit the Earth at all.

“On December 24, three moderate-importance flares were observed. At least one of them produced a CME. Based on measurements of its velocity, the collision with Earth was predicted to December 27. However, nothing happened, and despite the extension of the prediction of the onset of the disturbance by a day, calm continued on 28 December.

“For many days now there has been such a large active region on the Sun’s far side that it is affecting the vibration of the entire Sun. In addition, it has been observed by NASA’s Mars Perseverance rover camera. While it is primarily designed to see if there is dust in the air, it can see large sunspots and, most importantly, the sun’s far side is now visible from Mars.

“So we await the return of AR 3514, which will rise in the northeastern solar disk shortly after the New Year. It will be a significant contributor to the further rise in solar activity in the days ahead. Furthermore, longer term forecasts are calling for high solar activity in the second half of January. So perhaps we will finally see an improvement in shortwave conditions.”

Don’t forget ARRL Straight Key Night is this weekend, for all of New Years Day (UTC), so that starts at 4:00 PM Sunday here on the Left Coast where I live. Operate CW in a casual event using your straight key or semi-automatic bug.

Recent activity: https://bit.ly/3vhqLIE

Sun as revolving field motor: https://bit.ly/41CbEFA

Aurora: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8qwdc5

2023 solar activity:

http://tinyurl.com/55x96tfd   https://bit.ly/3RYngj1

Cosmic spectacle: https://bit.ly/41C8kdR

Larger storms: https://bit.ly/3RDl4fB

Tamitha Skov’s latest report: https://youtu.be/-xt-qMPQWwE

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net . When reporting observations, don’t forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation  and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for December 21 through 27, 2023 were 138, 157, 123, 113, 98, 94, and 78, with a mean of 114.4. 10.7 cm flux was 193.6, 186.7, 174.2, 183.4, 166.7, 154.2, and 149.4, with a mean of 172.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 7, 9, 4, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 5, 7, 2, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.

Happy Holiday’s from the repeater group.

There will be no informational net on Sunday December 24, 2023 and Dec 31, 2023 due to the holidays. See you again on Jan. 7 2024.