Solar report for 1-20-22

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar and geomagnetic activity increased this week. The average daily sunspot number rose by 52 points, from 42.4 to 94.4. The sunspot number peaked at 120 last Saturday.

Average daily solar flux went from 101.6 to 112, peaking at 119.4 on Sunday. Average daily planetary A index rose from 6.1 to 15.6, and average middle latitude numbers went from 4.1 to 11.3.

As reported by Spaceweather.com, sunspot AR2929 erupted at 1744 UTC on January 18 with an M1.5 class solar flare, blasting a pulse of X-rays and causing a shortwave radio blackout. I observed the blackout while using FT8 on 10 meters to observe propagation using https://www.pskreporter.info/. Just before the blast I could see my 10 meter signal reported by stations on the East Coast, but suddenly I saw no reports. The surprising part was during that period no local stations could copy my signal either!

Predicted solar flux is 102, 98, 94 and 92 on January 20 – 23; 90 on January 24 – 26; 100 and 95 on January 27 – 28; 90 on January 29 – 30; 95 on January 31; 100 and 105 on February 1 – 2; 110 on February 3 – 10; 115 on February 11 – 14; 110, 108, and 106 on February 15 – 17; 102 on February 18 – 21; 100 on February 22 – 23; 95 on February 24, and 90 on February 25 – 26. Flux values may rise to 110 after March 2.

Predicted planetary A index is 16 on January 20; 8 on January 21 – 22; 12 on January 23; 8 on January 24 – 26; 5 on January 27; 10 on January 28 – 30; 5 on January 31 – February 3; then 15 and 10 on February 4 – 5; 5 on February 6 – 9; 12, 15, 12, 18, and 10 on February 10 – 14; 5 on February 15 – 19; 8 on February 20 – 22; 5 on February 23, and 10 on February 24 – 26.

Sunspot numbers for January 13 – 19 were 111, 112, 120, 103, 99, 59, and 57, with a mean of 94.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 105.5, 110.2, 115.6, 119.4, 113.5, 114.5, and 105.3, with a mean of 112. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 15, 22, 19, 9, 18, and 23, with a mean of 15.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 10, 17, 16, 6, 12, and 15, with a mean of 11.3.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Tad Cook Solar Report 1-13-22

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Two new sunspot groups emerged on January 9 and another showed up on January 12. Average daily sunspot numbers rose six points this week to 42.4, and average daily solar flux increased from 91.4 to 101.6.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index declining from 7.7 to 6.1, and average daily middle latitude A index from 6 to 4.1.

The higher A index values on January 8 and 9 were from a G-1 class storm caused by co-rotating interaction regions.

Predicted solar flux for the next month shows values peaking at 120 on January 21 – 24 and again around mid-February. Predicted values are 104 and 106 on January 13 – 14; 108 on January 15 – 17; 106 on January 18 – 20; 120 on January 21 – 24; 110 on January 25; 100 on January 26 – 27; 95 and 90 on January 28 – 29; 85 on January 30 – February 1; 95 and 105 on February 2 – 3; 100 on February 4 – 5; 102 on February 6 – 7; 105 on February 8; 110 on February 9 – 10; 115 on February 11 – 12, and 120 on February 13 – 20.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 13 – 14;14, 24, 12, and 8 on January 15 – 18; 5 on January 19 – 22; 10 on January 23; 8 on January 24 – 26; 5 on January 27; 10 on January 28 – 30; 5 on January 31 – February 3; 15, 10, and 8 on February 4 – 6; 5 on February 7 – 11; 12, 10, and 8 on February 12 – 14, and 5 on February 15 – 18.

Sunspot numbers for January 6 through 12 were 35, 38, 31, 36, 38, 51, and 68, with a mean of 42.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 93.7, 107.3, 102.4, 102.1, 102.2, 100, and 103.2, with a mean of 101.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 2, 14, 10, 6, 5, and 4, with a mean of 6.1. Middle latitude A index was 2, 1, 9, 7, 4, 3, and 3, with a mean of 4.1.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

K7RA Solar Update 1-6-22

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity was quite a bit lower this week, but new sunspot groups emerged on December 31, January 1, January 4, and January 5. Average daily sunspot number dropped from 110.1 to 36.4, while average daily solar flux went from 124 to 91.4.

Geomagnetic activity was still fairly quiet, even with a number of flares and CMEs, with average daily planetary A index changing from 6.4 to 7.7, and average middle latitude A index from 4.4 to 6.

Predicted solar flux over the next month shows 10.7-centimeter flux values peaking at 120 on January 16 – 24 and again at 120 in mid – February. The daily predicted values are 84 and 88 on January 6 – 7; 92 on January 8 – 12; 115 on January 13 – 15; 120 on January 16 – 24; 110 on January 25; 100 on January 26 – 27; 95 and 90 on January 28 – 29; 88 on January 30 – 31; 85 on February 1 – 5; 90, 95, and 100 on February 6 – 8, and 115 on February 9 – 11.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 6 – 8; 12, 14, and 8 on January 9 – 11; 5 on January 12 – 14; 8 and 12 on January 15 – 16; back to 8 on January 17 – 18; 5 on January 19 – 22; 10 on January 23; 8 on January 24 – 26; 5 and 10 on January 27 – 28; 8 on January 29 – 30; 5 on January 31 – February 6; 10 on February 7 – 8, and 5 on February 9 – 10.

Sunspot numbers for December 30 – January 5 were 77, 53, 52, 25, 12, 12, and 24, with a mean of 36.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 102.4, 101.5, 93.9, 89, 84, 85.5, and 83.7, with a mean of 91.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 11, 10, 12, 6, and 3, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 2, 9, 7, 9, 5, and 3, with a mean of 6.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA

Solar report 12-30-21

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity persisted over the reporting week, although numbers were a bit lower. Average daily sunspot number declined from 124.4 to 110.1. Average daily solar flux slipped just slightly from 125 to 124. Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 6.4, and average middle latitude numbers changed from 6.4 to 4.4.

New sunspot groups appeared on December 25, 26, and 28.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is expected to peak at 130 on January 18 – 19, and the numbers are 110, 108, and 105 on December 30 – January 1; 104 on January 2 – 3; 100 on January 4; 98 on January 5 – 6; then 92, 100, 105, and 110 on January 7 – 10; 115 on January 11 – 13; 118 on January 14 – 15; 122 and 128 on January 16 – 17; 130 on January 18 – 19; 128, 125, and 120 on January 20 – 22; 125 on January 23 – 24; 122 on January 25; 120 on January 26 – 27; 115, 110, 100, and 95 on January 28 – 31; 90 on February 1 – 2, and 92 and 100 on February 3 – 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on December 30 – 31, then 6, 12, and 8 on January 1 – 3; 5 on January 4 – 10; 10 on January 11 – 12; 5 on January 13 – 14; 8 and 12 on January 15 – 16; 8 on January 17 – 18; 5 on January 19 – 22; 8, 10, 8, and 8 on January 23 – 26, and 5 on January 27 – February 6.

Sunspot numbers for December 23 – 29 were 143, 145, 117, 95, 85, 107, and 79, with a mean of 110.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 129.8, 126.2, 130.7, 125.4, 123.9, 120.5, and 111.4, with a mean of 124. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 7, 3, 10, 9, and 7, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 5, 2, 8, 6, and 5, with a mean of 4.4.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website

SPECIAL BULLETIN: ARRL to Oppose Forest Service Administrative Fees for Amateur Facilities

Even though we are a non-affiliated group you might want to read this bulletin from the ARRL…..

ARRL to Oppose Forest Service Administrative Fees for Amateur Facilities

The US Forest Service is proposing to implement a statutorily required annual fee for new and existing communications use authorizations to cover the costs of administering its authorization program. ARRL plans to vigorously oppose the imposition of the proposed fees on Amateur Radio.

The Forest Service proposal results from requirements set forth in the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 (aka “the Farm Bill”). Specifically, section 8705(c)(3)(b) of the Farm Bill directs the Forest Service to issue regulations that require fees for issuing communications use authorizations based on the cost to the Agency for maintenance or other activities to be performed by the Agency “as a result of the location or modification of a communications facility.”

The Forest Service is responsible for managing Federal lands and authorizes the use and occupancy of National Forest System (NFS) lands for communications facilities that provide communications services for adjacent rural and urban communities. The Agency said in its proposal that it administers more than 3,700 special use authorizations on NFS lands for infrastructure that supports more than 10,000 wireless communications uses at 1,367 communications sites.

According to the Forest Service Notice published in the December 22,2021 issue of the Federal Register, revenues from the proposed fee, “would provide the funds necessary to support a more modernized, efficient, and enhanced communications use program,” and will “cover the costs of administering the Agency’s communications use program.” Costs, as laid out in section 8705(f)(4) of the Farm Bill, may include expenditures for such things as “on-site reviews of communications sites, developing communications site management plans, hiring and training personnel for the communications use program, conducting internal and external outreach for and national oversight of the communications use program, and obtaining or improving access to communications sites on NFS lands.”

ARRL encourages Amateur Radio licensees to file comments opposing the imposition of the proposed administrative fee on Amateur Radio users. Comments must be received in writing by no later than February 22, 2022. Comments may be submitted online at the Federal Rulemaking Portal or via USPS mail to Director, Lands & Realty Management Staff, 201 14th Street SW, Washington, DC 20250-1124, and must include the identifier “RIN 0596-AD44.”

Equipment List

Click anywhere on this paragraph (except for the last two words) to see a list of equipment that the repeater group is selling for a long-time and fellow member of the repeater group and his family. If you have any questions please contact Jeremy AG7WT.

K7RA Solar Report 12-9-21

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: One new sunspot group appeared on December 4, but 4 days later it was gone. Average daily sunspot number declined from 46.1 to 24.6, and no sunspots were visible on December 8. Average daily solar flux went from 90.9 to 82.6.

Predicted solar flux over the next month does not seem promising. The December 8 forecast shows 78 and 80 on December 9 – 10; 82 on December 11 – 16; 85 on December 17 – 18; 87 on December 19 – 22; 86 on December 23 – 27; 84 on December 28; 82 on December 29 – January 2; 80 on January 3 – 5; 82 on January 6 – 8; 80 on January 9 – 10; 82 on January 11, and 85 on January 12 – 14.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, 8, and 5 on December 9 – 12; 8 on December 13 – 14; 5 on December 15 – 16; 15, 12, 10, and 8 on December 17 – 20; 5 on December 21 – 26; 15, 18, and 12 on December 27 – 29; 8 on December 30 – January 3; 5 on January 4 – 5; 10, 8, 5, 12, and 10 on January 6 – 10; 5 on January 11 – 12, and 15, 12, 10, and 8 on January 13 – 16.

Sunspot numbers for December 2 – 8 were 45, 29, 35, 36, 14, 13, and 0, with a mean of 24.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 86.6, 85.3, 88.1, 82.7, 80, 78.9, and 76.9, with a mean of 82.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 9, 9, 7, 5, and 5, with a mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 7, 6, 6, 3, and 4, with a mean of 5.3.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA

K7RA Solar report 11-25-21

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity was up this week. Average daily sunspot number increased from 26.9 to 46.1, and average daily solar flux was up 10.8 points to 90.9. Geomagnetic indicators were a little higher. Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.9 to 8.7, and average daily middle latitude A index from 5.4 to 6.3.

Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 26, another on November 28, and two more on November 30.

On December 1, Spaceweather.com announced a geomagnetic storm watch: “Minor geomagnetic storms are possible on December 3 when a CME might sideswipe Earth’s magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled into space on November 29 by an erupting filament of magnetism in the sun’s southern hemisphere. According to NOAA computer models, the bulk of the CME should sail south of our planet with a near miss [or] just as likely as a glancing blow.”

Predicted solar flux for the next month has flux values peaking at 94 on December 27 – 28. The forecast sees values of 86 and 84 on December 2 – 3; 80 on December 4 – 5; 78 on December 6 – 7; 76 and 78 on December 8 – 9; 82 on December 10 – 12; 80 on December 13 – 14; 85 on December 15 – 21; 82 and 80 on December 22 – 23; 78 on December 24 – 25; 92 on December 26; 94 on December 27 – 28; 88 on December 29 – January 1; 85, 82, and 80 on January 2 – 4, and 82 on January 5 – 8.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 16, 12, and 8 on December 2 – 5; 12, 10, and 8 on December 6 – 8; 5 on December 9 – 11; 8, 12, and 10 on December 12 – 14; 5 on December 15 – 16; 8 and 10 on December 17 – 18; 5 on December 19 – 25; 8 on December 26; 5 on December 27 – 29; 10 on December 30 – 31; 8 on January 1, and 5 on January 2 – 7.

Robert Marston, AA6XE, offered these observations:

“We now stand at exactly 2 years since the Solar Cycle 24/25 minimum was recorded, and the most notable attribute of Solar Cycle 25 is its slow climb out. We have seen bursts of activity from the sun, where numerous active regions pop up with only a handful actually developing into numbered sunspot groups. The bulk of new regions that form quickly decay away.”

There will be more from AA6XE in Friday’s report and bulletin.

Sunspot numbers for November 25 – December 1 were 20, 52, 53, 53, 47, 61, and 37, with a mean of 46.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 93.6, 92.3, 91.8, 92.2, 89.8, 90, and 86.4, with a mean of 90.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 9, 11, and 18, with a mean of 8.7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 3, 7, 6, 8, and 14, with a mean of 6.3.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. A propagation bulletin archive is available.

Solar storm warning:

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‘Significant’ radio and GPS issues are expected within hours, according to the Met Office.A SOLAR storm is expected to hit Earth in the next 36 hours, causing radio and GPS problems, according to experts.The Met Office and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have both detected a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun that will “graze” the Earth, according to the agencies.A space weather physicist, Dr. Tamitha Skov, has warned that this could result in amateur radio blackouts and GPS problems.

A space weather physicist, Dr. Tamitha Skov, has warned that this could result in amateur radio blackouts and GPS problems. “Our Sun sends a Thanksgiving Holiday gift,” she tweeted.

“A solar storm that began yesterday, according to NOAA and the Met Office, will graze Earth to the south late November 27.“A sporadic aurora is possible at mid-latitudes, but it’s unlikely to be a big storm.” “On Earth’s nightside, expect radio and GPS problems.” “Satellite systems may experience significant charging,” according to NOAA, “resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.”

“First-look data suggest it might deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field,” according to SpaceWeather.com. On Wednesday, a filament of magma burst out of a 50,000-mile-long canyon on the Sun, creating towering walls of red-hot plasma.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) formed by debris from the blast, which is a large expulsion of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s outer layer that can cause a geomagnetic storm.

When a geomagnetic storm collides with the Earth’s atmosphere, it can cause havoc. “A geomagnetic storm is a major disturbance of Earth’s magnetosphere that occurs when there is a very efficient exchange of energy from the solar wind into the space environment surrounding Earth,” according to astronomers at SpaceWeather.com.

“These storms are caused by variations in the solar wind, which cause major changes in the Earth’s magnetosphere’s currents, plasmas, and fields.”

CMEs are the most powerful type of geomagnetic storm, sending a stream of electrical charges and magnetic fields as far as the earth at speeds of up to three million miles per hour.

Even the lowest-intensity G1 storm, which we might see tomorrow, can cause major disruption if it collides with a satellite.

When this happens, satellite operations may be disrupted, and power grid fluctuations may occur.

However, lucky spectators who aren’t accustomed to seeing auroras may be treated to spectacular displays during these geomagnetic storms.

Forecasters predicted this earlier this month.


K7RA Solar report

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: New sunspots appeared on November 14 and 16, but solar activity was lower, and geomagnetic activity was lower as well.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 36.4 last week to 30.9 in the November 11 – 17 reporting week. Solar flux averages were off as well, dipping to to 80.8 this week compared to 89.1 last week.

Average daily planetary A index declined from 18 to 7, and average middle latitude numbers went from 11.7 to 4.9. Middle latitude A index daily average went all the way down to zero on November 13.

We see no high numbers in the solar flux prediction, which has 78 on November 18 – 20; 80 on November 21 – 24; 83 on November 25; 85 on November 26 – 27; 83 on November 28 – 29; 85 on November 30 – December 2; 82 on December 3 – 11; 79, 80, and 79 on December 12 – 14; 78, 77, 79, and 81 on December 15 – 18; 83 on December 19 – 21, and 85 on December 22 – 24.

Predicted planetary A index is a quiet 5 on November 18 – 20; then 12 and 8 on November 21 – 22; 5 on November 23 – 27; 10, 10, and 8 on November 28 – 30; 5 on December 1 – 12; 12 on December 13 – 14, and back to 5 on December 15 – 24.

Sunspot numbers for November 11 – 17 were 39, 39, 24, 23, 23, 35, and 33, with a mean of 30.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 84.5, 82.9, 81, 78.7, 79.3, 80.1, and 79.2, with a mean of 80.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 4, 9, 13, and 12, with a mean of 7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 0, 2, 6, 11, and 9, with a mean of 4.9.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website