Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin, ARLP004:

From the first week of 2023, we saw a dramatic and welcome increase in solar activity, but it softened in this reporting week, January 19 – 25.

Average daily sunspot numbers for the weeks starting with the final reporting week for 2022 were 96.1, 97, 135.9, 173.4, and 162.

Over the same period, average daily solar flux was 143.8, 157.8, 181.2, 221.8, and 198.9.

The northern hemisphere winter solstice was more than a month ago, and through the next two months we will see a gradual transition toward spring conditions.

Predicted solar flux over the next month shows values peaking near 205 on February 14 – 15. Predicted numbers are 170 and 165 on January 26 – 27; 160 on January 28 – 31; 165, 170, 180, and 185 on February 1 – 4; 190 on February 5 – 6; 195 on February 7 – 12; 200 on February 13; 205 on February 14 – 15; 200 on February 16 – 18; 195, 200, and 190 on February 19 – 21; 185 on February 22 – 23; 180 on February 24 – 25, and 175 on February 26 – 28. Flux values may peak above 200 again after March 10.

Predicted planetary A index, an indicator of geomagnetic instability, is 10 on January 26; 8 on January 27 – 29; 5 on January 30 through February 1; 8 on February 2; 5 on February 3 – 6; 12 on February 7 – 8; 15, 12, and 5 on February 9 – 11; 8 on February 12 – 13; 5 on February 14 – 17; 8, 10, 10, 12, and 10 on February 18 – 22; 8 on February 23 – 25, and 5 on February 26 – 27.

More dramatic solar warnings.

https://bit.ly/3XGqNm

Sunspot numbers for January 19 – 25, 2023, were 166, 197, 194, 166, 144, 127, and 140, with a mean of 162. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 226.1, 217.5, 208.7, 198.6, 189.1, 180.2, and 171.8, with a mean of 198.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 17, 9, 7, 4, and 7, with a mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 11, 7, 5, 3, and 5, with a mean of 5.9.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin:

Last week’s bulletin opened with “Wow!” I don’t know what to say about this week, except it is beyond “wow!”

This actually has me thinking about Cycle 19.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 135.9 to 173.4, while average solar flux went to 221.8 from 181.2.

From Spaceweather.com: “If sunspot production continues apace for the rest of January, the monthly sunspot number will reach a 20-year high.”

Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 13.9.

On January 15, 2023, planetary A index reached a peak of 30, a very high value indicating a geomagnetic storm. Conditions were stormy throughout the week due to flares and coronal mass ejections. On that day in Fairbanks, Alaska, the college A index was 53. There was a large polar cap absorption event.

Nine new sunspot groups appeared during this reporting week, January 12 – 18. One on January 12, four on January 13, two more on January 15, and two more, one each, on January 17 – 18.

Predicted solar flux is 220, 218, 215, 212, and 210 on January 19 – 23; 206 on January 24 – 25; 200 and 190 on January 26 – 27; 185 on January 28 – 29; 190 on January 30 through February 2; 195 and 200 on February 3 – 4; 205 on February 5 – 6; 210 on February 7 – 11, then a big jump to 235 and 230 on February 12 – 13; 225 on February 14 – 16; 220 on February 17, and 215 on February 18 – 19.

Predicted planetary A index is 16, 12, 16, 12 and 8 on January 19 -23; 5 on January 24 – 25; 8, 12, and 8 on January 26 – 28; 5 on January 29 – 31; 12 and 8 on February 1 – 2; 5 on February 3 – 6; 12, 12, 15, and 12 on February 7 – 10; 5 on February 11 – 13, then 8, 15, 10, and 7 on February 14 – 17.

Sunspots in the news:

https://bit.ly/3Hdilp4

In Friday’s bulletin, look for a report from KA3JAW about his recent experiences on 10 -meter FM.

Sunspot numbers January 12 – 18, 2023, were 151, 181, 170, 177, 186, 185, and 164, with a mean of 173.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 211.6, 208.5, 227.8, 234.3, 228.1, 221.7, and 220.3, with a mean of 221.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 12, 11, 30, 14, 6, and 15, with a mean of 13.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 9, 17, 10, 5, and 11, with a mean of 10.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin, ARLP002:

Sunspot numbers are up and geomagnetic disturbances are down. What could be better? Okay, maybe Cycle 19, but that was 66 years ago and by far the all-time largest sunspot cycle.

But this is now, we are in Cycle 25, and this sunspot cycle is emerging better than the consensus prediction. It is predicted to peak 30 months from now in the summer of 2025. Solar cycles tend to ramp up quickly and decline slowly, so we can look forward to great propagation for years to come.

There were six new emerging sunspot groups in our reporting week, January 5 – 11. The first two appeared January 5, the next on January 8, another on January 9, and two more on January 10.

The average daily sunspot number rose from 97 to 135.9, and the average daily solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, compared to last week.

The average daily planetary A index declined from 15.4 to 6.7, and the middle latitude A index from 10.9 to 6.1.

Compare the solar numbers to last year. A year ago, in ARLP002, the average daily sunspot number was only 42.4 (135.9 now), and the average daily solar flux was 101.6 (181.2 now). Ten and 12 meters now have openings every day.

The predicted solar flux is 196 on January 12 and 13; 198, 196, 194, 192, 190, 188, and 140 on January 14 – 20; 130 on January 21 – 22; 135 on January 23; 140 on January 24 – 26; 145 on January 27; 155, 155, and 160 on January 28 – 30; 170 on January 31 – February 2; 175 and 180 on February 3 – 4; 185 on February 5 – 6; 180, 178, and 175 on February 7 – 9; 155 on February 10 – 12, and 145 on February 13.

The predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 12 – 17; 10, 18, 15, and 8 on January 18 – 21; 5 on January 22 – 24; 8, 22, 12, and 8 on January 25 – 28; 5 on January 29 – 31; 12 and 8 on February 1 – 2; 5 on February 3 – 5; 10, 12, and 8 on February 6 – 8, and 5 on February 9 – 13.

Jon Jones, N0JK, Editor for “The World Above 50 MHz” column in QST, writes:

“There was a 6-meter F2 opening between Ecuador and North America on January 6, 2023, around 1530 UTC, mostly between the southeast United States and Ecuador. Solar flux was 154.” (Actually, solar flux was 154.3 on January 5 and 172.4 on January 6).

“Later, there was some weak sporadic-E on 6 meters. I logged W4IMD (EM84) 1942 UTC, and W7JW (EN82) on 6-meter FT8 via Es at 1954 UTC on January 6. High solar activity this week.”

Sunspot numbers on January 5 through 11 were 103, 101, 104, 117, 142, 201, and 183, with a mean of 135.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 154.3, 172.4, 178.9, 183.8, 190.9, 193, and 195.1, with a mean of 181.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 6, 8, 5, 7, and 9, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8, with a mean of 6.1.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted on Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Please plan to attend the Capitol Peak Repeater ANNUAL MEETING on Satuday,  February 25, 2023 at 1:00pm.

This is the only meeting we have during the year and is open to all hams. Get the latest reports and updates to the repeater. I think you will find it interesting, and you can meet the people who you talk to on the system. The meeting will take place at the South Bay Fire Department at 1:00 pm. (3506 Shincke Rd NE, Olympia, WA 98506) 

There have been some major changes done to the repeater system recently. Please join us and find out what has been done, what will be done, what needs to be done and what you would like to see done.

The Repeater Group will again have two tables at the Mike and Key Swap Meet. This will take place on March 11, 2023 at the Puyallup Fairgrounds. We are asking for your donations of good used ham and electronic equipment for this event. This is the only fund raiser that we have during the year and it is very important for the repeater maintenance fund. Please clean out your ham shack and see if there is something you might be willing to donate to this worthy cause. If you have a donation, contact Don KD7AVI or bring it to the annual meeting. We are also looking for volunteers to help set up the tables on Friday March 10th and to help run the tables on the day of the event.

See you at the Annual Meeting,

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP001 for January 5, 2023:

Two new sunspot groups emerged on December 29, 2022, one more on December 30, 2022, and another on January 1, 2023.

Solar activity was a little higher, with average daily sunspot numbers rising from 96.1 to 97, and solar flux averages rose 14 points to 157.8.

Predicted solar flux is 152 and 154 on January 5 – 6; 152 on January 7 – 8; 150, 148, and 146 on January 9 – 11; 150 on January 12 – 13; 145 on January 14; 140 on January 15 – 16; 145 on January 17 – 19; 150 and 155 on January 20 – 21; 160 on January 22 – 23; 165 on January 24 – 26; then 160, 155, 155, 158, and 155 on January 27 – 31.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 12 and 10 on January 5 – 7; 5 on January 8 – 16; 8, 12, 25, 20, and 10 on January 17 – 21; 5 on January 22 – 24; 8, 28, 15, and 10 on January 25 – 28; 5 on January 29 – 30, and 18 on January 31 – February 1.

Article on Siberian Radioheliograph:
https://bit.ly/3vGFJVm

Sunspot numbers for December 29, 2022, through January 4, 2023, were 113, 121, 82, 94, 94, 89, and 86, with a mean of 97. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 162.8, 178.3, 164.9, 152.6, 146.4, 148.5, and 151, with a mean of 157.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 31, 16, 14, 8, 7, and 21, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 22, 10, 9, 5, 5, and 17, with a mean of 10.9.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted on Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin:

I am writing this, my penultimate bulletin of 2022, about seven hours after the start of Winter Solstice in the Northern Hemisphere on Wednesday December 21, 2022, at 2147 UTC. It is very cold in Seattle, about 17 degrees Fahrenheit on the longest night of the year.

Solar activity was down a bit from the previous week, although it was one of those odd occasions when average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux changed in opposite directions.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 136.9 to 124.1, while solar flux rose from 150 to 153.8.

Geomagnetic indicators were a bit lower, with average planetary A index changing from 7.7 to 6.7, and middle latitude numbers from 6 to 5.1.

Due to missing data, I had to fudge one of the numbers (the December 16 middle latitude A index), which I pegged at 7 by eyeballing trends.

Predicted solar flux appears to reach a short-term peak of 160 on January 4 – 7, 2023. Starting December 22, 2022, the forecast shows 140 and 135 through December 23; 130 on December 24 – 25; 135 on December 26 – 28; 130, 135, and 138 on December 29 – 31; 140, 150, and 155 on January 1 – 3, 2023; 160 on January 4 – 7; 158, 156, 154, 154, and 152 on January 8 – 12; 150 on January 13 – 15; 145, 130, and 120 on January 16 – 18; 118 on January 19 – 20; and 120, 125, and 127 on January 21 – 23.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8, 5, 14, and 10 on December 22 – 26; 8, 5, 12, 10, and 12 on December 27 – 31; 8, 5, and 18 on January 1 – 3, 2023; 10 on January 4 – 5; 8, 10, and 6 on January 6 – 8; 5 on January 9 – 14; 12, 10, and 20 on January 15 – 17; 12, 8, 5, and 18 on January 18 – 21; and 20 on January 22 – 24.

In Friday’s bulletin look for a 6-meter report from Jon Jones, N0JK, the columnist of “The World Above 50 MHz” in QST magazine, and any other interesting observations you and others may send my way.

Sunspot numbers for December 15 through 21, 2022 were 140, 108, 139, 128, 132, 119, and 103, with a mean of 124.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 165.9, 163.1, 154.6, 155, 6, 152.4, 146.4, and 138.7, with a mean of 153.8. Estimated planetary A indexes were 5, 9, 3, 4, 11, 6, and 9, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 7, 2, 2, 9, 5, and 7, with a mean of 5.1.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin, ARLP050:

Heightened sunspot activity over the past week no doubt produced the great conditions during last weekend’s ARRL 10-Meter Contest.

Compared to the previous 7 days, average daily sunspot numbers jumped from 85 to 136.9, while solar flux averages increased from 137.5 to 150.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index decreasing from 14.4 to 7.7, and middle latitude A index decreasing from 9.1 to 6.

Higher sunspot numbers and lower geomagnetic indicators are an ideal combination for favorable HF propagation.

New sunspots appeared every day except December 12, with one new sunspot on December 8, another on December 9, three more on December 10, another on December 13, and one more on December 14.

The latest prediction from the United States Air Force (USAF) via National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows solar flux at 164, 160, 158, and 156 on December 15 – 18; 154 on December 19 – 20; 150 and 125 on December 21 – 22; 120 on December 23 – 28; 125, 130, and 135 on December 29 – 31; 145 on January 1 – 8; 140, 130, 125, and 120 on January 9 – 12, and 115 on January 13 – 18.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 15 – 17; 8 on December 18 – 20; 12, 20, 15, and 12 on December 21 – 22; 20 on December 25 – 28; 12, 10, 12, 8, 5, and 18 on December 29 through January 3; 10 on January 4 – 5; 8 on January 6; 5 on January 7 – 14, and 10 on January 15 – 16.

In Friday’s bulletin we will have reports from the 10-meter contest and some 6-meter observations.

Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14, 2022, were 115, 116, 111, 141, 142, 159, and 174, with a mean of 136.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 143, 149.1, 141.7, 147,7, 150.8, 153, and 164.7, with a mean of 150. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 8, 10, 6, 4, and 4, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 9, 6, 7, 5, 3, and 3, with a mean of 6.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

A few pictures provided by James KK7CLU.

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin:

No new sunspots appeared over the past reporting week, November 24 – 30. But sunspots were visible every day.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined, with the average daily sunspot number dropping from 66 to 46, and average daily solar flux from 116.5 to 108.3.

Solar wind streams from coronal holes kept geomagnetic indicators active, with average daily planetary A index jumping from 5.1 to 18.6, and middle latitude A index from 3.4 to 14.

On Wednesday, November 30, the magnetometer at Fairbanks, Alaska, showed the college A index at 54, which is the highest value over the past month. No doubt this produced aurora.

The current prediction from Wednesday night has solar flux reaching a peak of 130 on December 12, rather than the 135 recently predicted.

Look for flux values of 115, 115, and 120 on December 1 – 3; 125 on December 4 – 10; 130, 115, and 110 on December 11 – 13; 105 on December 14 – 17; 100 on December 18 – 23; 95, 105, and 110 on December 24 – 26; 115 on December 27 – 30, and 120 on December 31.

The planetary A index prediction is 25, 20, 10, 12, and 8 on December 1 – 5; 5 on December 6 – 7; 8 on December 8 – 9; 5 on December 10 – 16; 10 on December 17 – 18; 5 on December 19 – 21; 20, 15, 12, and 10 on December 22 – 25; and 15, 18, 10, 18, and 10 on December 26 – 30.

Solar wind news:

https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW

Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30 were 61, 55, 60, 56, 52, 25, and 12, with a mean of 46. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 109.7, 108.5, 107.1, 107.2, 107, 107.9, and 111, with a mean of 108.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 16, 15, 24, 25, and 24, with a mean of 18.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 12, 10, 18, 20, and 17, with a mean of 14.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.