Only four new sunspot groups emerged over the past week: one on December 28, 2023, another on December 31, and two more on January 2 and 3, 2024.
Solar indices sank. The average daily sunspot number declined from 114.4 to 63.4, and the average daily solar flux declined from 172.6 to 141.9.
Average daily planetary A index rose from 8.4 to 6.7, and middle latitude numbers rose from 4 to 5.1.
Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks looks moderate. It will be 145 on January 4 – 5; 150 on January 6 – 8; 155 on January 9; 160 on January 10 – 11; 155 on January 12 – 14; 160, 165, 160, and 155 on January 15 – 18; 150 on January 19 – 21; 145 and 140 on January 22 – 23, and 135 on January 24 – 26.
Predicted planetary A index is 8 on January 4; 5 on January 5 – 7; 10 on January 8 – 10, and 5 on January 11 – 26.
Solar activity looks soft as of late, but perhaps we will see a double peak during this cycle.
See an illustration comparing progress in the current cycle to the last cycle, month by month since each solar minimum, at: https://bit.ly/4aMBefh. The second chart from the top of the page is labeled “Solar Cycle Comparison.” The red line is the last cycle, and it was probably smoothed by monthly averages. The darker blue-green line is probably a conventional moving average with the points on the line smoothed over a year. The yellow line is the current cycle — also probably smoothed over a year — and the lighter blue-green line is the current cycle, which was probably smoothed with monthly numbers. This data looks promising for future activity.
Sunspot numbers for December 28, 2023, through January 3, 2024, were 83, 92, 48, 55, 44, 59, and 63, with a mean of 63.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 146.7, 142.9, 139.7, 146.2, 135.7, 142.1, and 140.2, with a mean of 141.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 6, 5, 4, 10, 8, and 11, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 4, 2, 6, 8, and 8, with a mean of 5.1.