Solar activity increased this week. The average daily sunspot number rose from 68 to 112.6, and the average daily solar flux changed from 145.6 to 156.1.

Due to solar wind at the beginning of the reporting week, average daily planetary A index increased from 10.6 to 23.3, while average middle latitude A index went from 8.4 to 13.7. Many reports of aurora came in this week, some down to lower latitudes in North America.

Predicted solar flux is 150 on March 30 through April 1; 140 on April 2 – 3; 130 on April 4 – 5; 132 on April 6 – 8, then 130, 132, 135, and 135 on April 9 – 12, then 140, 145, and 148 on April 13 – 15, then 150, 150, 155, 155, and 158 on April 16 – 20; 160 on April 21 – 23, then 155, 145, and 145 on April 24 – 26, and 135 on April 27 through May 1.

Predicted planetary A index is 18 on March 30 – 31, then 16, 12, 10, and 8 on April 1 – 4, then 5 on April 5 – 9, then 15, 12, 8, and 5 on April 10 13; 8 on April 14 – 15, then 12, 20, 15, and 5 on April 16 – 19, then 20, 15, and 10 on April 20 – 22; 8 on April 23 – 24; 5 on April 25 – 26, then 12, 15, 10, and 8 on April 27 – 30.

Sunspot numbers from March 23 through 29, 2023, were 73, 108, 105, 125, 128, 114, and 135, with a mean of 112.6. 10.7-centimeter flux was 151, 157.5, 160.3, 159.4, 158.2, 158.7, and 147.8, with a mean of 156.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 60, 66, 15, 8, 3, 5, and 6, with a mean of 23.3. Middle latitude A index was 28, 40, 12, 6, 2, 4, and 4, with a mean of 13.7.

I am a HAM that has been into Capitol Forest many times. I’ve been on the dirt back roads in dry, muddy, and snowy conditions. Yesterday’s adventure was no different. I started into the forest on a beautiful late afternoon. I like to go up in elevation so I can operate on HF with minimal power and use the height as the advantage. I decided to go up to a favorite spot I know of near the repeater site. The road was completely dry, and then I saw some small patches of snow. I rounded a corner and the snow became very deep. By the time I made the decision to stop I was in it. I started to back down only to find I was being pushed towards ditch. By the time I went forward to correct I was stuck.

Upon realizing my predicament, I grabbed the HT and called out on the repeater. Luckily it was shortly before a net, so there were plenty of ears listening. Hearing my issue, Duke,KK7EGK and Josh,WA7AW contacted me and soon they formulated a plan. In under 2 hours they had arrived with tools to help get my vehicle freed.  

Now would I have got this response from anywhere else on a late Sunday afternoon? Probably not.

Thank you to everyone on the Capital Peak repeater that assisted with ideas, input, and general uplifting chat. As mentioned I have been into Capitol Forest many times to operate for Parks On The Air (POTA). Although I hold the top spot for this location, It wouldn’t be possible without the fellow HAMs that know the peak roads even better than me. We all make mistakes, and my lesson has been learned.

Thank you Capital Peak Repeater Group!

73 Eric Mallek – K7EVM

Sunspot numbers were lower again this week, with the average declining from 143.6 two weeks ago to 118.7 last week, and now 68 this week. Average daily solar flux sank eight points, from 153.6 last week to 145.6 this week.

Six new sunspot groups emerged over the week: one on March 17, another March 18, three more on March 19, one more on March 21, and another on March 22.

Predicted solar flux is 155, 150, and 145 on March 23 – 25; 140 on March 26 – 27, then 130, 130, and 140 on March 28 – 30; 138 on March 31 through April 1, then 136, 136, and 134 on April 2 – 4; 132 on April 5 – 7; 130 on April 8 – 9, then 132, 135, 138, and 140 on April 10 – 13; 142 on April 14 – 15; 143 on April 16; 140 on April 17 – 18; 142 on April 19 – 21, and 144 on April 22.

Predicted planetary A index is very active over the next few days, at 20, 40, 30, 20, and 15 on March 23 – 27; 8 on March 28 – 29; 20 and 18 on March 30 – 31; 12 on April 1 – 2; 10 and 8 on April 3 – 4; 5 on April 5 – 9, then 15, 12, 8, and 5 on April 10 – 13: 8 on April 14 – 15, then 12, 10, 5, and 5 on April 16 – 19, then 10, 36, 20, 10, and 8 April 20 – 24.

Sunspot numbers for March 16 through 22, 2023, were 84, 58, 35, 73, 75, 70, and 81, with a mean of 68. 10.7-centimeter flux was 135.4, 134.2, 140.3, 142.7, 156.1, 151.6, and 158.9, with a mean of 145.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 8, 10, 13, 8, and 17, with a mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 6, 8, 10, 8, and 14, with a mean of 8.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Six new sunspot groups emerged over the past week: two on March 9, another on March 10, one more on March 12, and another two on March 14.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this week.

Average daily sunspot numbers softened from 143.6 to 118.7, and average daily solar flux went from 181.6 to 153.6.

Predicted solar flux is 142, 150, 148, 146, 148, and 146 on March 16-21; 160 on March 22-23; 155 on March 24-26; 150 on March 27-28; 145 on March 29-30; 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March 31 through April 4; 165 on April 5-8; 170 on April 9-11, and 175, 180, 180, 175, 170, and 165 on April 12-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 25 and 10 on March 16-17; 5 on March 18-19; 8 on March 20-21; 5 on March 22-23; 12, 16, 26, 18, 10, 8, 24, and 22 on March 24-31; 16 on April 1-2; 14, 12, 8, and 10 on April 3-6; 8 on April 7-8; 5, 8, 22, and 8 on April 9-12; 5 on April 13-14, and 8 and 16 on April 15-16.

Before Friday’s bulletin, check out the information on this DR2W propagation modeling site, recently from WB6MPH and last fall, from KB2S:

https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don’t forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

Sunspot numbers for March 9 through 15, 2023, were 155, 135, 126, 135, 87, 97, and 96, with a mean of 118.7. 10.7 cm flux was 178.8, 171.2, 157.4, 150, 143.3, 138.5, and 135.7, with a mean of 153.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 11, 7, 8, 3, 17, and 29, with a mean of 13.1. Middle latitude A index was 14, 10, 5, 6, 2, 12, and 19, with a mean of 9.9.

So far this month, two new sunspot groups appeared on March 1, one on March 2, three on March 3, one on March 5, two on March 6, and one on March 7.

The average daily sunspot numbers rose from 126.3 to 143.6.

The average daily solar flux changed from 158.2 to 181.6.

The average daily planetary A index declined from 27.7 to 14.6, and the average middle latitude numbers went from 18.9 to 10.7, reflecting the quieter conditions following the upsets of the week before.

The Dominion Radio Observatory, the source for solar flux data, is way up at 49.5 degrees north longitude in eastern British Columbia in Penticton. For much of the year the sun is low in the sky, so all winter they do their thrice daily readings at 1800, 2000, and 2200 UTC. But on March 1, they shifted over to 1700, 2000, and 2300 UTC. The local noon (2000 UTC) reading is the official solar flux for the day.

You can see the data and the dates here:

https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

The vernal equinox, when the Northern and Southern hemispheres are bathed in equal solar radiation, is less than 2 weeks away.

Predicted solar flux shows values peaking now, and again on March 16 – 19.

Flux values are expected at 178, 175, 172, and 165 on March 9 – 12; 170 on March 13 – 15; 175, 180, 180, 175, 170, and 165 on March 16 – 21; 160 on March 22 – 23; 155 on March 24 – 26; 150 on March 27 – 28; 145 on March 29 – 30; 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March 31 through April 4, and 165 on April 5 – 8.

The predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 8, 10, and 8 on March 9 – 13; 5 on March 14 – 15; 8 on March 16 – 17; 5, 8, and 16 on March 18 – 20; 5 on March 21 – 23; 12, 16, 26, 18, and 10 on March 24 – 28; 8, 24, and 16 on March 29 – 31; 20 on April 1 – 2; 16 and 8 on April 3 – 4, and 5 on April 5 – 10.

Dr. Tony Phillips of https://spaceweather.com posted this animation of sunspot AR3245 splitting, which was captured by NASA’s SDO:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/07mar23/splitup.gif

AR3245 is seen in the SE quadrant (lower left). Sunspot numbers for March 2 through 8 were 103, 133, 122, 137, 173, 191, and 146, with a mean of 143.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 168.8, 190.9, 181.6, 179.8, 188, 180.3, and 181.9, with a mean of 181.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 22, 15, 22, 15, 11, and 8, with a mean of 14.6. The middle latitude A index was 8, 16, 10, 17, 11, 7, and 6, with a mean of 10.7.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.Share your reports and observations