Please plan to attend the Capitol Peak Repeater ANNUAL MEETING on Satuday,  February 25, 2023 at 1:00pm.

This is the only meeting we have during the year and is open to all hams. Get the latest reports and updates to the repeater. I think you will find it interesting, and you can meet the people who you talk to on the system. The meeting will take place at the South Bay Fire Department at 1:00 pm. (3506 Shincke Rd NE, Olympia, WA 98506) 

There have been some major changes done to the repeater system recently. Please join us and find out what has been done, what will be done, what needs to be done and what you would like to see done.

The Repeater Group will again have two tables at the Mike and Key Swap Meet. This will take place on March 11, 2023 at the Puyallup Fairgrounds. We are asking for your donations of good used ham and electronic equipment for this event. This is the only fund raiser that we have during the year and it is very important for the repeater maintenance fund. Please clean out your ham shack and see if there is something you might be willing to donate to this worthy cause. If you have a donation, contact Don KD7AVI or bring it to the annual meeting. We are also looking for volunteers to help set up the tables on Friday March 10th and to help run the tables on the day of the event.

See you at the Annual Meeting,

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP001 for January 5, 2023:

Two new sunspot groups emerged on December 29, 2022, one more on December 30, 2022, and another on January 1, 2023.

Solar activity was a little higher, with average daily sunspot numbers rising from 96.1 to 97, and solar flux averages rose 14 points to 157.8.

Predicted solar flux is 152 and 154 on January 5 – 6; 152 on January 7 – 8; 150, 148, and 146 on January 9 – 11; 150 on January 12 – 13; 145 on January 14; 140 on January 15 – 16; 145 on January 17 – 19; 150 and 155 on January 20 – 21; 160 on January 22 – 23; 165 on January 24 – 26; then 160, 155, 155, 158, and 155 on January 27 – 31.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 12 and 10 on January 5 – 7; 5 on January 8 – 16; 8, 12, 25, 20, and 10 on January 17 – 21; 5 on January 22 – 24; 8, 28, 15, and 10 on January 25 – 28; 5 on January 29 – 30, and 18 on January 31 – February 1.

Article on Siberian Radioheliograph:
https://bit.ly/3vGFJVm

Sunspot numbers for December 29, 2022, through January 4, 2023, were 113, 121, 82, 94, 94, 89, and 86, with a mean of 97. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 162.8, 178.3, 164.9, 152.6, 146.4, 148.5, and 151, with a mean of 157.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 31, 16, 14, 8, 7, and 21, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 22, 10, 9, 5, 5, and 17, with a mean of 10.9.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted on Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin:

I am writing this, my penultimate bulletin of 2022, about seven hours after the start of Winter Solstice in the Northern Hemisphere on Wednesday December 21, 2022, at 2147 UTC. It is very cold in Seattle, about 17 degrees Fahrenheit on the longest night of the year.

Solar activity was down a bit from the previous week, although it was one of those odd occasions when average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux changed in opposite directions.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 136.9 to 124.1, while solar flux rose from 150 to 153.8.

Geomagnetic indicators were a bit lower, with average planetary A index changing from 7.7 to 6.7, and middle latitude numbers from 6 to 5.1.

Due to missing data, I had to fudge one of the numbers (the December 16 middle latitude A index), which I pegged at 7 by eyeballing trends.

Predicted solar flux appears to reach a short-term peak of 160 on January 4 – 7, 2023. Starting December 22, 2022, the forecast shows 140 and 135 through December 23; 130 on December 24 – 25; 135 on December 26 – 28; 130, 135, and 138 on December 29 – 31; 140, 150, and 155 on January 1 – 3, 2023; 160 on January 4 – 7; 158, 156, 154, 154, and 152 on January 8 – 12; 150 on January 13 – 15; 145, 130, and 120 on January 16 – 18; 118 on January 19 – 20; and 120, 125, and 127 on January 21 – 23.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 8, 5, 14, and 10 on December 22 – 26; 8, 5, 12, 10, and 12 on December 27 – 31; 8, 5, and 18 on January 1 – 3, 2023; 10 on January 4 – 5; 8, 10, and 6 on January 6 – 8; 5 on January 9 – 14; 12, 10, and 20 on January 15 – 17; 12, 8, 5, and 18 on January 18 – 21; and 20 on January 22 – 24.

In Friday’s bulletin look for a 6-meter report from Jon Jones, N0JK, the columnist of “The World Above 50 MHz” in QST magazine, and any other interesting observations you and others may send my way.

Sunspot numbers for December 15 through 21, 2022 were 140, 108, 139, 128, 132, 119, and 103, with a mean of 124.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 165.9, 163.1, 154.6, 155, 6, 152.4, 146.4, and 138.7, with a mean of 153.8. Estimated planetary A indexes were 5, 9, 3, 4, 11, 6, and 9, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 7, 2, 2, 9, 5, and 7, with a mean of 5.1.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin, ARLP050:

Heightened sunspot activity over the past week no doubt produced the great conditions during last weekend’s ARRL 10-Meter Contest.

Compared to the previous 7 days, average daily sunspot numbers jumped from 85 to 136.9, while solar flux averages increased from 137.5 to 150.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index decreasing from 14.4 to 7.7, and middle latitude A index decreasing from 9.1 to 6.

Higher sunspot numbers and lower geomagnetic indicators are an ideal combination for favorable HF propagation.

New sunspots appeared every day except December 12, with one new sunspot on December 8, another on December 9, three more on December 10, another on December 13, and one more on December 14.

The latest prediction from the United States Air Force (USAF) via National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows solar flux at 164, 160, 158, and 156 on December 15 – 18; 154 on December 19 – 20; 150 and 125 on December 21 – 22; 120 on December 23 – 28; 125, 130, and 135 on December 29 – 31; 145 on January 1 – 8; 140, 130, 125, and 120 on January 9 – 12, and 115 on January 13 – 18.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 15 – 17; 8 on December 18 – 20; 12, 20, 15, and 12 on December 21 – 22; 20 on December 25 – 28; 12, 10, 12, 8, 5, and 18 on December 29 through January 3; 10 on January 4 – 5; 8 on January 6; 5 on January 7 – 14, and 10 on January 15 – 16.

In Friday’s bulletin we will have reports from the 10-meter contest and some 6-meter observations.

Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14, 2022, were 115, 116, 111, 141, 142, 159, and 174, with a mean of 136.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 143, 149.1, 141.7, 147,7, 150.8, 153, and 164.7, with a mean of 150. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 8, 10, 6, 4, and 4, with a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 9, 6, 7, 5, 3, and 3, with a mean of 6.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

A few pictures provided by James KK7CLU.

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin:

No new sunspots appeared over the past reporting week, November 24 – 30. But sunspots were visible every day.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined, with the average daily sunspot number dropping from 66 to 46, and average daily solar flux from 116.5 to 108.3.

Solar wind streams from coronal holes kept geomagnetic indicators active, with average daily planetary A index jumping from 5.1 to 18.6, and middle latitude A index from 3.4 to 14.

On Wednesday, November 30, the magnetometer at Fairbanks, Alaska, showed the college A index at 54, which is the highest value over the past month. No doubt this produced aurora.

The current prediction from Wednesday night has solar flux reaching a peak of 130 on December 12, rather than the 135 recently predicted.

Look for flux values of 115, 115, and 120 on December 1 – 3; 125 on December 4 – 10; 130, 115, and 110 on December 11 – 13; 105 on December 14 – 17; 100 on December 18 – 23; 95, 105, and 110 on December 24 – 26; 115 on December 27 – 30, and 120 on December 31.

The planetary A index prediction is 25, 20, 10, 12, and 8 on December 1 – 5; 5 on December 6 – 7; 8 on December 8 – 9; 5 on December 10 – 16; 10 on December 17 – 18; 5 on December 19 – 21; 20, 15, 12, and 10 on December 22 – 25; and 15, 18, 10, 18, and 10 on December 26 – 30.

Solar wind news:

https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW

Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30 were 61, 55, 60, 56, 52, 25, and 12, with a mean of 46. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 109.7, 108.5, 107.1, 107.2, 107, 107.9, and 111, with a mean of 108.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 16, 15, 24, 25, and 24, with a mean of 18.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 12, 10, 18, 20, and 17, with a mean of 14.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

11/28/2022

ARRL Headquarters was closed for the holiday last Thursday and Friday, so this bulletin is delayed until Monday, but has fresh content from Sunday night.

At 2228 UTC on November 27, the Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning. “A coronal hole wind stream is expected to induce G1 periods of geomagnetic activity from mid-30 – November to 01-December.”

Solar activity softened over the past reporting week, November 17 – 23. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 72.3 to 66, and average daily solar flux from 137.2 to 116.5.

In the four days since the end of the reporting week, the average daily solar flux has sunk to 106. But we look forward to rising solar flux, peaking at 135 on December 12 and again on January 8.

In the 2021 ARLP047 bulletin, average daily sunspot number was only 30.9, and solar flux was 80.8, so we can see Cycle 25 is progressing nicely.

Average daily planetary A index rose slightly from 4.4 to 5.1, and middle latitude numbers declined from 3.9 to 3.4.

Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 16, one more on November 17, and another on November 18. Two more appeared, the first on November 21 and the second on November 23. No new sunspots appeared in the following four days. The peak sunspot number was 83 on November 21.

Predicted solar flux is 105 and 110 on November 28 – 29; 115 on November 30 through December 3; 120 on December 4; 125 on December 5 – 10; 130, 135, and 130 on December 11 – 13; 125 on December 14 – 17; 120 on December 18; 125 on December 19 – 24; 120 on December 25 – 31; 125 on January 1 – 6, 2023, then 130 and 135 on January 7 – 8.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15, and 18 on November 28 – 30; 10, 18, and 10 on December 1 – 3; 5 on December 4 – 7; 8 on December 8 – 9; 5 on December 10 – 16; 10, 26, 15, and 8 on December 17 – 20; 10, 15, 8, and 10 on December 21 – 24; 8 on December 25 – 27; 12, 18, and 8 on December 28 – 30; 5 on December 31 through January 3, 2023, then 8 on January 4 – 5.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote on November 24:

“Over the past seven days, I have been reminded again of the Woody Allen quote, ‘If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans.’

At first, the authors of the forecasts of the Earth’s magnetic field activity (including Tomas Bayer of the Budkov Geomagnetic Observatory) predicted an increase to the level of a disturbance on November 17. After that, most of the authors already agreed on November 19. In the following days, the forecasts were pushed forward, finally to 21 – 22 November. And was there anything? Nothing! Solar activity dropped slightly. The geomagnetic field was quiet except for November 18 and 21. The development of shortwave propagation was erratic, but not bad, with improvements on November 17, 19, and 24.

For forecasting, we can sometimes use observations obtained using a technique called helioseismology. Its map of the sun’s far side on November 22 showed a huge active region. The corresponding heliographic longitude will appear at the eastern limb of the solar disk in about 10 days. After that, we expect an increase in activity and, of course, an improvement in shortwave propagation.”

Occasionally I see a solar report in overseas tabloids that makes me laugh out loud, or LOL as they say.

Here is one. I love the part that says our Sun is the largest star in our solar system. No kidding! Normal solar activity becomes an existential threat.

https://bit.ly/3EK9R6o

That was published on November 25, and no doomsday yet.

More dire warnings from the same source:

https://bit.ly/3uc0uYd

This one is pretty deep, but is about real science:

https://bit.ly/3ODAKxs

I have not seen a new video from Tamitha Skov, but you can check our Space Weather Woman’s YouTube videos at https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx .

Jon Jones, N0JK writes from Kansas:

“There was an extensive and unexpected sporadic-E opening November 19 early in the morning. I noted stations on Es about an hour after local sunrise here in Kansas.

I logged stations in W3 and W4 on 6 meters on FT8. Signals were good at times, the opening lasted here until about 1700 UTC.

Sunspot AR3150 produced a M1-class solar flare at 1256 UTC. A strong pulse of extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized Earth’s upper atmosphere. The sporadic-E appeared around 30 minutes later. Perhaps this helped spark the Es? This has been the only significant sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz so far in November 2022.

The opening was fortuitous. Larry Lambert, N0LL was operating portable from rare grid DN90. He made many 6-meter contacts on sporadic-E.

The ARRL Phone Sweepstakes was on, and sporadic-E may have helped contestants make contacts on 20, 15, and 10 meters.

Today (November 27, 2022) I got on 10 meters Sunday afternoon of the CQ WW CW contest. Stations in Hawaii were very loud at 2240 UTC. I logged 4 Hawaiians in 6 minutes running just 5 watts and a magnet-mount whip on a BBQ grill. 10 can be amazing at times.”

N0JK writes the monthly VHF column, “The world Above 50 MHz” in QST.

Danny, K7SS reported on the Western Washington DX Club email reflector that he worked single band 15 meters in the CQ World Wide CW DX contest. “Great to have 15 open again. Not quite at its peak, and never had a good opening to EU, except for OH, SM, and LA over the top both days.

Most EU worked scatter path to the E/SE. Thank goodness for ASIA action! lots of JA BY YB folks.”

Danny lives in Seattle, where I live, and we have always had an amazing pipeline to Japan.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for November 17 through 23, 2022, were 64, 55, 59, 72, 83, 61, and 68, with a mean of 66. 10.7 cm flux was 119.2, 116, 115.1, 119.1, 117, 115.7, and 113.3, with a mean of 116.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 7, 5, 6, 10, 3, and 3, with a mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 1, 5, 4, 3, 8, 2, and 1, with a mean of 3.4.

ARRL thanks Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, for the weekly ARRL Propagation Bulletin. Due to this week’s early Thanksgiving issue of the ARRL Letter, the next K7RA Solar Update will be posted to ARRL News on Monday, November 28.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the propagation page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports, observations, tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin:

Sunspot numbers and solar flux did not seem to correlate this week. Flux rose, and spots fell.

The average daily sunspot number declined from 79.8 to 72.3, but average solar flux numbers rose from 129.9 to 137.2. This tells me that the number and area of sunspots was less, but the 10.7-centimeter radiation from those spots increased.

A new sunspot emerged on November 10, another on November 13, and two more on November 16, the last day of our reporting week, which runs Thursday through the following Wednesday.

In our bulletin from 1 year ago, the average daily sunspot number was only 36.4, and solar flux was 89.1, so if the latest activity seems a bit lackluster, we can see that the sunspot cycle is making progress and is expected to peak around July 2025.

We get better HF propagation at higher frequencies when X-rays from the sun are more intense, and they correlate with sunspot numbers and the 10.7-centimeter radiation. This radiation charges the ionosphere, increasing density.

Back in 1957 – 1959, at the peak of Solar Cycle 19, the radiation was so intense that (I’ve been told) 10 meters was open worldwide, around the clock. Cycle 19, had, by far, the highest recorded sunspot count in history, with nothing like it before or since.

Here is the prediction for solar flux: 133, 125, and 122 on November 17 – 19; 120 on November 20 – 21; 122 on November 22; 125 on November 23 – 24; 115 on November 25 – 26; 120 and 125 on November 27 – 28; 130 on November 29 – 30; 135 on December 1 – 12; 120 and 110 on December 13 – 14, and 105 on December 15 – 18.

Predicted planetary A index, which gives us a clue into possible geomagnetic unrest, is 5, 8, 16, 20, and 12 on November 17 – 21; 8, 5, 8, 15, and 18 on November 22 – 26; 12, 8, 5, 5, 12, 18, and 8 on November 27 through December 3; 5 on December 4 – 7; 8 on December 8 – 9; 5 on December 10 – 11; 10 on December 12 – 13; 5 on December 14 – 16; 15 on December 17, and 18 on December 18 – 19.

The ARRL 10-Meter Contest is coming up, and will take place during the weekend of December 10 – 11. Expect better propagation than we saw in 2020 and 2021. Although predicted solar flux is not high, the prediction above shows the highest solar flux (135) over that weekend, and planetary A index at a low value of 5, indicating predicted geomagnetic stability. But of course, things may change.

Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16 were 79, 57, 65, 74, 77, 69, and 85, with a mean of 72.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 138.7, 137.6, 138.2, 137, 141.5, 134.2, and 132.9, with a mean of 137.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 9, 5, 7, 4, 2, and 2, with a mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 3, 6, 3, 2, and 2, with a mean of 3.9.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

The Puget Sound Repeater Roundabout is a weekend-long event held on many of our local repeaters. The goal is to meet new people and work repeaters you might not usually key up. Light up the airwaves and make some noise on the great repeaters in the Puget Sound area!

The Puget Sound Repeater Roundabout will begin on November 19th, 2022, at 00:00, and end on November 20th, 2022 at 23:59, Pacific time.

Anyone with a ham radio license can participate! You don’t even have to be local; stations may participate over Echolink or Allstar if they are available.

Repeaters Only these 109 participating repeaters from 48 radio groups are eligible for scoring points in the Repeater Roundabout. Please stick to these repeaters; we don’t want to annoy anyone who did not want to bring the contest to their repeater.”

For complete details visit:  http://www.repeaterroundabout.com/ . This is an excellent opportunity for hams of all ages and license class to experience a contest on six meters and up repeaters. Every ham is invited and encouraged to participate whether you have a $30 handheld or a $3,000 base/mobile radio.

Thank you, Puget Sound Radio Group, for this awesome get on the air opportunity.