So far this month, two new sunspot groups appeared on March 1, one on March 2, three on March 3, one on March 5, two on March 6, and one on March 7.

The average daily sunspot numbers rose from 126.3 to 143.6.

The average daily solar flux changed from 158.2 to 181.6.

The average daily planetary A index declined from 27.7 to 14.6, and the average middle latitude numbers went from 18.9 to 10.7, reflecting the quieter conditions following the upsets of the week before.

The Dominion Radio Observatory, the source for solar flux data, is way up at 49.5 degrees north longitude in eastern British Columbia in Penticton. For much of the year the sun is low in the sky, so all winter they do their thrice daily readings at 1800, 2000, and 2200 UTC. But on March 1, they shifted over to 1700, 2000, and 2300 UTC. The local noon (2000 UTC) reading is the official solar flux for the day.

You can see the data and the dates here:

https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

The vernal equinox, when the Northern and Southern hemispheres are bathed in equal solar radiation, is less than 2 weeks away.

Predicted solar flux shows values peaking now, and again on March 16 – 19.

Flux values are expected at 178, 175, 172, and 165 on March 9 – 12; 170 on March 13 – 15; 175, 180, 180, 175, 170, and 165 on March 16 – 21; 160 on March 22 – 23; 155 on March 24 – 26; 150 on March 27 – 28; 145 on March 29 – 30; 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March 31 through April 4, and 165 on April 5 – 8.

The predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 8, 10, and 8 on March 9 – 13; 5 on March 14 – 15; 8 on March 16 – 17; 5, 8, and 16 on March 18 – 20; 5 on March 21 – 23; 12, 16, 26, 18, and 10 on March 24 – 28; 8, 24, and 16 on March 29 – 31; 20 on April 1 – 2; 16 and 8 on April 3 – 4, and 5 on April 5 – 10.

Dr. Tony Phillips of https://spaceweather.com posted this animation of sunspot AR3245 splitting, which was captured by NASA’s SDO:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/07mar23/splitup.gif

AR3245 is seen in the SE quadrant (lower left). Sunspot numbers for March 2 through 8 were 103, 133, 122, 137, 173, 191, and 146, with a mean of 143.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 168.8, 190.9, 181.6, 179.8, 188, 180.3, and 181.9, with a mean of 181.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 22, 15, 22, 15, 11, and 8, with a mean of 14.6. The middle latitude A index was 8, 16, 10, 17, 11, 7, and 6, with a mean of 10.7.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.Share your reports and observations

This was a busy week for geomagnetic storms. A solar wind stream from an equatorial hole and a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seemingly blew geomagnetic numbers off the scale, with the planetary A index on Monday hitting 94. An aurora was visible as far south as Colorado.

This week, the source of the 10.7-centimeter solar flux from the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in Kaleden, British Columbia, was again saturated by solar wind on February 25, and the measurement was 279.3. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) corrected this to 152, which I thought was a bit too low. The other recent saturation was on February 17, at 343.1, but for some reason, the NOAA let this stand.

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 107 to 126.3, but average daily solar flux declined from 162.4 to 158.2.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 10.6 to 27.7.

Over the next few weeks, it appears that solar flux values should hit a peak around March 17 – 18.

Predicted solar flux is 164, 162, and 158 on March 2 – 4; 154 on March 5 – 8; 165 on March 9 – 12; 170 on March 13 – 15; 175 on March 16; 180 on March 17 – 18; 175, 170, and 165 on March 19 – 21; 160 on March 22 – 23; 155 on March 24 – 26; 150 on March 27 – 28; 145 on March 29 – 30, and 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March 31 through April 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 12, 18, 24, 14, and 8 on March 2 – 8; 5 on March 9 – 14; 15, 8, 8, 5, 8, and 15 on March 15 – 20; 5 on March 21 – 23; 12, 16, 56, 32, 16, and 10 on March 24 – 29; 8 on March 30 – 31, and 16, 18, and 15 on April 1 – 3.

The predicted A index of 56 and 32 on March 26 – 27 suggests a return of this week’s disturbance in the next solar rotation.

Newsweek reported a radio blackout at the following link:

https://bit.ly/3YsJREJ

Sky & Telescope also reported on aurora season:

https://bit.ly/3ZbC1As

The News Tribune wrote a story about the northern lights:

https://bit.ly/3ymZrqR

The above story features western Washington, where I live. Unfortunately, the sky was overcast, but folks in eastern Washington were able to see the aurora. Remember that many of the images you see were from cameras with a long exposure time, which makes them much brighter than what can be seen with the naked eye.

Thanks to spaceweather.com for this NASA video clip of sunspot group AR3234 growing as it comes over our sun’s eastern limb:

https://bit.ly/3J1IIiJ

Sunspot numbers for February 23 through March 1, 2023, were 108, 130, 129, 120, 192, 100, and 105, with a mean of 107. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 148.2, 164.1, 152, 159, 161.2, 160.9, and 162, with a mean of 162.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 6, 10, 26, 94, 28, and 8, with a mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 16, 4, 9, 18, 60, 19, and 6, with a mean of 8.4.

Solar activity plunged this reporting week, although there was some excitement on February 17, 2023, when the solar flux was reported as a record breaking 343.1.

Because it was the noon reading, it is still reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as the solar flux, but this was a false reading when the Penticton detectors were overloaded by energy from a solar flare.

So, in this report, I have chosen the 1800 UTC flux value, which was 165.

The average daily sunspot number plunged from 182.4 to 107, while the average solar flux dropped from 196.4 to 162.4. If I had not changed the 343.1 to 165, the solar flux average would have been 187.9.

Six new sunspots emerged over the week, one on February 16, one each on February 18 and 19, and three more on February 20.

The solar flux prediction for the next month shows a peak value of 180 for March 7 – 13.

Predicted values are 150 on February 23; 148 on February 24 – 25; 146 on February 26 – 27; 142 on February 28; 140 on March 1; 145 on March 2 – 3; 150, 155, and 165 on March 4 – 6; 180 on March 7 – 13; 175 and 170 on March 14 – 15; 160 on March 16 – 17; 155, 160, 150, 140, and 135 on March 18 – 22; 125 on March 23 – 24; 130 on March 25, and 140 on March 26 – 28.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on February 23 – 24; 10, 5, and 12 on February 25 – 27; 18, 16, and 8 on February 28 – March 2; 5 on March 3 – 4; 15, 18, 15, and 8 on March 5 – 8; 5 on March 9 – 14; 15 on March 15; 8 on March 16 – 17; 5 on March 18 – 20; 10 on March 21 – 23; 5 on March 24 – 25, and 8 on March 26 – 27.

Jon Jones, N0JK, wrote:

“There was a nice 6-meter F2 opening on February 16.

I logged [the] HC1MD/2 grid FI57 on 50 MHz FT8 at 1916 UTC. I found this opening by checking the DXMaps website. HC1MD/2 had a strong, steady signal. I operated from home using an attic dipole antenna. [I] also logged HC2FG.

Other area 6-meter operators such as WQ0P (EM19) and KF0M (EM17) also worked stations in Chile. The K index was 4, which I suspect may have helped.

On February 18, a number of North American stations worked Robert Felicite, 3B9FR, around 1600 UTC on 6-meter FT8.

(3B9FR is on Rodrigues Island in the Indian Ocean, off the southeast coast of South Africa)

Conditions were great [during] the ARRL [International] DX CW Contest on 10 meters. I operated [for] a couple of hours [on] Sunday morning [while] running 5 W and a quarter-wave whip fixed mobile. [I] worked [more than one] hundred stations

Europe, the Caribbean, South America, and Africa. Many of the Europeans were over S-9.”

Sunspot numbers for February 16 – 22 were 101, 86, 109, 112, 135, 106, and 100, with a mean of 107. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 163.2, 165, 167.2, 169, 159.8, 160.9, and 151.9, with a mean of 162.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 6, 6, 7, 8, 17, and 6, with a mean of 10.6. The middle latitude A index was 21, 4, 5, 4, 6, 15, and 4, with a mean of 8.4.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Please don’t forget to attend the Capitol Peak Repeater ANNUAL MEETING on Satuday,  February 25, 2023 at 1:00pm.

This is the only meeting we have during the year and is open to all hams. Get the latest reports and updates to the repeater. I think you will find it interesting, and you can meet the people who you talk to on the system. The meeting will take place at the South Bay Fire Department at 1:00 pm. (3506 Shincke Rd NE, Olympia, WA 98506) 

At 0725 UTC on February 15, 2023, the Australian Space Weather

Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

“A coronal mass ejection (CME) impact occurred around 2200 UTC on February 14. Magnetic field strength (Bz) has been southward for the majority of time since impact, and there is a chance of G1 geomagnetic conditions.”

Bz is the north-south direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

They predicted a disturbance for February 15 – 16.

For the latest geomagnetic conditions, I prefer this source:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

More on the IMF:

https://bit.ly/3E6IZ15

Many sunspots appeared during this reporting week, February 9 – 15: three new sunspot groups on February 9, one more on February 10, two more on February 11, another on February 12, and three more on February 13.

Recent sunspot images:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/12feb23/hmi1898.gif

This URL is for February 12. To see February 13, just change the “12feb23” string in the URL to “13feb23,” and so on, for any other dates.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 95.1 to 182.4, and average daily solar flux from 155.9 to 196.4.

Geomagnetic activity also rose, with average daily planetary A index going from 11.7 to 13.7, and middle latitude numbers from 7.6 to 10.7.

The most active days were at the beginning and end of the week, with planetary A index at 21 on February 9, and at 29 on February 15. On those two days, the college A index at Fairbanks, Alaska, was 33 and 46. The quietest day was Monday, February 13, when the planetary A index was 4.

The outlook for the next month looks a bit more modest, with predicted solar flux at 175 and 172 on February 16 – 17; 170 on February 18 – 19; 165 on February 20; 160 on February 21 – 23; 130 on February 24 – 26; 140 on February 27 to March 1; 145 on March 2 – 3; 150, 155, and 165 on March 4 – 6; 180 on March 7 – 13; 170 on March 14 – 15; 160 on March 16 – 18; and 150 on March 19.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 22, 30, and 12 on February 16 – 19; 5 on February 20 – 21; 8 on February 22; 10 on February 23 – 24; then 5, 5, and 8 on February 25 – 27; 5, 5, and 8 again on February 28 through March 2; 5, 5, and 16 on March 3 – 5; 18, 15, and 8 on March 6 – 8; and 5 on March 9 – 20.

Sunspot numbers for February 9 through 15, were 150, 190, 209, 197, 185, 206, and 140, with a mean of 182.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 214.9, 207.8, 209.5, 199.7, 189.2, 179.7, and 173.7, with a mean of 196.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 16, 11, 7, 4, 8, and 29, with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 10, 5, 3, 6, and 23, with a mean of 10.7.

For this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP006:

A period of rising solar activity returned this week.

Ten new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week, February 2 – 8, 2023: two on February 3, one each on February 4 – 5, four more on February 6, and two more on February 8.

Early on February 9, Spaceweather.com reported a large emerging sunspot over the sun’s southeast horizon.

The average daily sunspot number for this week rose from 80.7 to 95.1, and the average daily solar flux from 139.5 to 155.9.

Geomagnetic indicators rose as well. The planetary A index rose from 7.9 to 11.7, and the middle latitude numbers rose from 5.9 to 7.6.

The rise in geomagnetic activity was related to solar wind late in the reporting week.

Predicted solar flux is 192 on February 9; 195 on February 10 – 13; 190 on February 14 – 15; 170 on February 16; 150 on February 17 – 18; 145, 140, 135, 130, and 135 on February 19 – 23; 130 on February 24 – 26; 125 on February 27; 130 on February 28 – March 3; 135, 150, and 160 on March 4 – 6; 155 on March 7 – 8; 160 on March 9, and 155 on March 10 – 12.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on February 9 – 10; 5, 5, and 8 on February 11 – 13; 5 on February 14 – 17; 8 on February 18 – 19; 5 on February 20 – 21; 10 on February 22 – 24; 5, 5, and 8 on February 25 – 27; 5, 5, and 8 on February 28 – March 2; 5, 5, and 10 on March 3 – 5; 15, 15, 12, and 8 on March 6 – 9, and 5 on March 10 – 16.

Tamitha Skov’s latest, from February 5:

Sunspot numbers for February 2 through 8 were 56, 74, 66, 79, 139, 110, and 142, with a mean of 95.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 134.9, 134.5, 139, 144, 156.7, 184.7, and 197.6, with a mean of 155.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 9, 6, 5, 18, 20, and 18, with a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 5, 3, 13, 12, and 12, with a mean of 7.6.

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin, ARLP004:

From the first week of 2023, we saw a dramatic and welcome increase in solar activity, but it softened in this reporting week, January 19 – 25.

Average daily sunspot numbers for the weeks starting with the final reporting week for 2022 were 96.1, 97, 135.9, 173.4, and 162.

Over the same period, average daily solar flux was 143.8, 157.8, 181.2, 221.8, and 198.9.

The northern hemisphere winter solstice was more than a month ago, and through the next two months we will see a gradual transition toward spring conditions.

Predicted solar flux over the next month shows values peaking near 205 on February 14 – 15. Predicted numbers are 170 and 165 on January 26 – 27; 160 on January 28 – 31; 165, 170, 180, and 185 on February 1 – 4; 190 on February 5 – 6; 195 on February 7 – 12; 200 on February 13; 205 on February 14 – 15; 200 on February 16 – 18; 195, 200, and 190 on February 19 – 21; 185 on February 22 – 23; 180 on February 24 – 25, and 175 on February 26 – 28. Flux values may peak above 200 again after March 10.

Predicted planetary A index, an indicator of geomagnetic instability, is 10 on January 26; 8 on January 27 – 29; 5 on January 30 through February 1; 8 on February 2; 5 on February 3 – 6; 12 on February 7 – 8; 15, 12, and 5 on February 9 – 11; 8 on February 12 – 13; 5 on February 14 – 17; 8, 10, 10, 12, and 10 on February 18 – 22; 8 on February 23 – 25, and 5 on February 26 – 27.

More dramatic solar warnings.

https://bit.ly/3XGqNm

Sunspot numbers for January 19 – 25, 2023, were 166, 197, 194, 166, 144, 127, and 140, with a mean of 162. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 226.1, 217.5, 208.7, 198.6, 189.1, 180.2, and 171.8, with a mean of 198.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 17, 9, 7, 4, and 7, with a mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 11, 7, 5, 3, and 5, with a mean of 5.9.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin:

Last week’s bulletin opened with “Wow!” I don’t know what to say about this week, except it is beyond “wow!”

This actually has me thinking about Cycle 19.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 135.9 to 173.4, while average solar flux went to 221.8 from 181.2.

From Spaceweather.com: “If sunspot production continues apace for the rest of January, the monthly sunspot number will reach a 20-year high.”

Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 13.9.

On January 15, 2023, planetary A index reached a peak of 30, a very high value indicating a geomagnetic storm. Conditions were stormy throughout the week due to flares and coronal mass ejections. On that day in Fairbanks, Alaska, the college A index was 53. There was a large polar cap absorption event.

Nine new sunspot groups appeared during this reporting week, January 12 – 18. One on January 12, four on January 13, two more on January 15, and two more, one each, on January 17 – 18.

Predicted solar flux is 220, 218, 215, 212, and 210 on January 19 – 23; 206 on January 24 – 25; 200 and 190 on January 26 – 27; 185 on January 28 – 29; 190 on January 30 through February 2; 195 and 200 on February 3 – 4; 205 on February 5 – 6; 210 on February 7 – 11, then a big jump to 235 and 230 on February 12 – 13; 225 on February 14 – 16; 220 on February 17, and 215 on February 18 – 19.

Predicted planetary A index is 16, 12, 16, 12 and 8 on January 19 -23; 5 on January 24 – 25; 8, 12, and 8 on January 26 – 28; 5 on January 29 – 31; 12 and 8 on February 1 – 2; 5 on February 3 – 6; 12, 12, 15, and 12 on February 7 – 10; 5 on February 11 – 13, then 8, 15, 10, and 7 on February 14 – 17.

Sunspots in the news:

https://bit.ly/3Hdilp4

In Friday’s bulletin, look for a report from KA3JAW about his recent experiences on 10 -meter FM.

Sunspot numbers January 12 – 18, 2023, were 151, 181, 170, 177, 186, 185, and 164, with a mean of 173.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 211.6, 208.5, 227.8, 234.3, 228.1, 221.7, and 220.3, with a mean of 221.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 12, 11, 30, 14, 6, and 15, with a mean of 13.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 9, 17, 10, 5, and 11, with a mean of 10.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin, ARLP002:

Sunspot numbers are up and geomagnetic disturbances are down. What could be better? Okay, maybe Cycle 19, but that was 66 years ago and by far the all-time largest sunspot cycle.

But this is now, we are in Cycle 25, and this sunspot cycle is emerging better than the consensus prediction. It is predicted to peak 30 months from now in the summer of 2025. Solar cycles tend to ramp up quickly and decline slowly, so we can look forward to great propagation for years to come.

There were six new emerging sunspot groups in our reporting week, January 5 – 11. The first two appeared January 5, the next on January 8, another on January 9, and two more on January 10.

The average daily sunspot number rose from 97 to 135.9, and the average daily solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, compared to last week.

The average daily planetary A index declined from 15.4 to 6.7, and the middle latitude A index from 10.9 to 6.1.

Compare the solar numbers to last year. A year ago, in ARLP002, the average daily sunspot number was only 42.4 (135.9 now), and the average daily solar flux was 101.6 (181.2 now). Ten and 12 meters now have openings every day.

The predicted solar flux is 196 on January 12 and 13; 198, 196, 194, 192, 190, 188, and 140 on January 14 – 20; 130 on January 21 – 22; 135 on January 23; 140 on January 24 – 26; 145 on January 27; 155, 155, and 160 on January 28 – 30; 170 on January 31 – February 2; 175 and 180 on February 3 – 4; 185 on February 5 – 6; 180, 178, and 175 on February 7 – 9; 155 on February 10 – 12, and 145 on February 13.

The predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 12 – 17; 10, 18, 15, and 8 on January 18 – 21; 5 on January 22 – 24; 8, 22, 12, and 8 on January 25 – 28; 5 on January 29 – 31; 12 and 8 on February 1 – 2; 5 on February 3 – 5; 10, 12, and 8 on February 6 – 8, and 5 on February 9 – 13.

Jon Jones, N0JK, Editor for “The World Above 50 MHz” column in QST, writes:

“There was a 6-meter F2 opening between Ecuador and North America on January 6, 2023, around 1530 UTC, mostly between the southeast United States and Ecuador. Solar flux was 154.” (Actually, solar flux was 154.3 on January 5 and 172.4 on January 6).

“Later, there was some weak sporadic-E on 6 meters. I logged W4IMD (EM84) 1942 UTC, and W7JW (EN82) on 6-meter FT8 via Es at 1954 UTC on January 6. High solar activity this week.”

Sunspot numbers on January 5 through 11 were 103, 101, 104, 117, 142, 201, and 183, with a mean of 135.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 154.3, 172.4, 178.9, 183.8, 190.9, 193, and 195.1, with a mean of 181.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 6, 8, 5, 7, and 9, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8, with a mean of 6.1.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted on Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.