We saw a rise in solar activity this reporting week, July 6 – 12, 2023.

Referencing the previous 7 days, average daily sunspot numbers rose from 126.1 to 181.9, while the average daily solar flux increased from 164.5 to 179.4.

Geomagnetic indicators did not change much. The average planetary A index went from 7.3 to 8.6 and the average daily middle latitude A index went from 8 to 8.1.

The most active day was July 7, when the University of Alaska’s College A index was 40! The middle latitude A index on that day was only 11. The College A index was measured by a magnetometer in Fairbanks, Alaska.

Predicted solar flux looks like it will be great over the next few days, at 190 on July 13; 188 on July 14 – 15; 186 on July 16; 182 on July 17 – 18; 180 on July 19; 170 on July 20 – 21; 160 on July 22 – 23; 155 on July 24 – 25; 160 on July 26 – 27; 165 on July 28 – 29; 170 on July 30 – 31; 165 on August 1 – 4; 170 on August 5; 175 on August 6 – 7; 170 on August 8, and 165 on August 9 – 11.

Predicted planetary A index is 15 and 10 on July 13 – 14; 5 on July 15 through August 2; 10, 8, and 5 on August 3 – 5, then 8, 8, 5, 8, and 8 on August 6 – 10.

On July 12, spaceweather.com reported:

“A new hyperactive sunspot is producing M-class solar flares every few hours. This is causing shortwave radio blackouts around all longitudes of our planet. If current trends continue, an X-flare could be in the offing.”

See spaceweather.com for updates.

Thanks to reader David Moore for sending us the information on aurora hype at https://bit.ly/44ovzsh. Sunspot numbers for July 6 through 12, 2023, were 149, 147, 167, 183, 181, 227, and 219, with a mean of 181.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 157.6, 161.4, 160.5, 179.2, 190.6, 213.5, and 193.3, with a mean of 179.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 18, 8, 4, 5, 8, and 6, with a mean of 8.6. The middle latitude A index was 11, 16, 6, 4, 6, 8, and 6, with a mean of 8.1.

. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

According to Spaceweather.com, the average daily sunspot number for June 2023 was 163, which is the highest it’s been in 21 years.

From a July 3, 2023, email:

“The average sunspot number in June 2023 hit a 21-year high. Solar Cycle 25 has shot past its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24, and may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century.”

Could we see another Solar Cycle 19, the biggest in recorded history, that stretches back before the birth of radio?

From my own records, average daily sunspot numbers for April through June 2023 had a nice upward trend at 93.7, 125.8, and 143.9.

There was one new sunspot region on June 30, three more on July 1, one more on July 2, another on July 4, and one more on July 5.

Sunspot and solar flux data this week did not track with each other again. The average daily sunspot number declined from 170 to 126.1, while the average daily solar flux rose slightly from 160.3 to 164.5.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with the average daily planetary A index declining from 10.7 to 7.3 and middle latitude averages declining from 9.9 to 8.

Predicted solar flux is 155 and 150 on July 6 – 7; 145 on July 8 – 11; 150 and 155 on July 12 – 13; 175 on July 14 – 18; 170 on July 19 – 21; 160 on July 22 – 23; 155 on July 24 – 25; 160 on July 26 – 27; 165 on July 28 – 29; 170, 170, and 165 on July 30 through August 1, and 155 on August 2 – 6.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 6 – 7; 12 and 8 on July 8 – 9; 5 on July 10 – 11; 20 and 30 on July 12 – 13; 8 on July 14 – 22; 5 on July 23 – 30; 8 on July 31 through August 1, and 5 on August 2 – 4.

Check out Tamitha Skov’s, WX6SWW, YouTube video from July 1 at https://youtu.be/HR8mm30oxOQ.

Read about a radio blackout at http://bit.ly/46tTRT8. Sunspot numbers for June 29 through July 5, 2023, were 112, 187, 119, 126, 117, 121, and 101, with a mean of 126.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 162.2, 158.6, 165.5, 170.2, 173.2, 167.2, and 154.6, with a mean of 164.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 8, 5, 5, 5, 4, and 7, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 6, 8, 7, 5, and 9, with a mean of 8.

A comprehensive Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

A weekly, full report is posted on ARRL News.

Conditions were favorable over Field Day weekend, with the exception of a brief period where planetary K index was at 5 on Saturday night.

There were five new sunspot groups on June 23, two more on June 24, another on June 26, and another on June 27.

Average daily sunspot numbers were up, and solar flux was down.

The average daily sunspot number rose from 143 to 170, and the average daily solar flux declined slightly from 165.4 to 160.3.

This was unexpected because we normally see these values track together.

Predicted solar flux is 155 on June 29; 150 on June 30 through July 4; 145 on July 5; 135 on July 6 – 8; 145, 155, 160, 165, and 170 on July 9 – 13; 175 on July 14 – 18; 170 on July 19 – 21; 160, 150, 145, 145, 140, and 135 on July 22 – 27, and 130 on July 28 – 31.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 29 – 30; 15 and 10 on July 1 – 2; 5 on July 3 – 7; 12 and 8 on July 8 – 9; 5 on July 10 – 11; a stormy 20 and 30 on July 12 – 13; 8 on July 14 – 23; 12 on July 24 – 25, and 8 on July 26 – 27.

Read about the cycle peak and see images at https://bit.ly/3ps6iOI.

Check out a useful glossary for space weather terms at https://bit.ly/3XuimeQ.

Sunspot numbers for June 22 – 28, 2023, were 176, 194, 200, 180, 158, 141, and 141, with a mean of 170. 10.7-centimeter flux was 173.2, 169.7, 160.8, 154.8, 157.7, 151.2, and 154.9, with a mean of 160.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 9, 16, 15, 11, 8, and 8, with a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 8, 9, 16, 10, 11, 7, and 8, with a mean of 9.9.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose this week. There were two new sunspot groups on June 15, another on June 17, one more on June 18, three more on June 19, two more on June 20, and another on June 21.

The average daily sunspot number increased from 122 to 143, and the average daily solar flux rose from 154.8 to 165.4.

The average daily planetary A index jumped from 5.7 to 15.4, while the middle latitude numbers increased from 6.7 to 13.1.

Predicted solar flux is 175, 180, and 180 on June 22 – 24; 185 on June 25 – 27; 180 on June 28; 175 on June 29 through July 1; 180 on July 2 – 3; 175 on July 4 – 5; 170 on July 6 – 10; 165, 160, and 160 on July 11 – 13; 165, 160, and 160 on July 14 – 16; 155, 160, and 160 on July 17 – 19, and 165 on July 20 – 24.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 15, 10, and 8 on June 22 – 25; 5, 5, and 12 on June 26 – 28; 5, 5, and 12 again on June 29 through July 1; 8 on July 2; 5 on July 3 – 7; 12 on July 8; 5 on July 9 – 11; 20 and 30 on July 12 – 13; 8 on July 14 – 15, and 12 on July 16 – 17.

These predictions are from forecasters Reilly and Kiser of the US Air Force 557th Weather Wing at Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska. See https://bit.ly/3qRNJnr for more details.

So, what does this forecast show for ARRL Field Day this weekend?

Geomagnetic numbers are a bit more unsettled than what was shown in last week’s bulletin, which had an A index of 5 for Friday through Sunday. The latest shows 15, 10, and 8. Predicted solar flux looks excellent at 180, 180, and 185.

Of course, Field Day does not begin until Saturday morning, but here is data for the day prior.

Watch a video on the X1.1 solar flare at https://bit.ly/3CI0OCA.

There was another report from South Asia regarding solar flares as some sort of existential threat.

Don’t worry, there was nothing terrifying about what they reported, but there is a nice description of what the NASA-ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) does to monitor it at https://bit.ly/444VhSk. Visit SOHO’s website at https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov.

Look for an updated forecast for ARRL Field Day in Friday’s bulletin.

Sunspot numbers for June 15 – 21 were 112, 120, 110, 133, 181, 155, and 190, with a mean of 143. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 153.1, 157.2, 158.1, 164.1, 168.8, 180.1, and 176.4, with a mean of 165.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 38, 8, 10, 10, 10, and 8, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 17, 24, 8, 12, 9, 13, and 9, with a mean of 13.1.