Solar activity plunged this reporting week, although there was some excitement on February 17, 2023, when the solar flux was reported as a record breaking 343.1.

Because it was the noon reading, it is still reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as the solar flux, but this was a false reading when the Penticton detectors were overloaded by energy from a solar flare.

So, in this report, I have chosen the 1800 UTC flux value, which was 165.

The average daily sunspot number plunged from 182.4 to 107, while the average solar flux dropped from 196.4 to 162.4. If I had not changed the 343.1 to 165, the solar flux average would have been 187.9.

Six new sunspots emerged over the week, one on February 16, one each on February 18 and 19, and three more on February 20.

The solar flux prediction for the next month shows a peak value of 180 for March 7 – 13.

Predicted values are 150 on February 23; 148 on February 24 – 25; 146 on February 26 – 27; 142 on February 28; 140 on March 1; 145 on March 2 – 3; 150, 155, and 165 on March 4 – 6; 180 on March 7 – 13; 175 and 170 on March 14 – 15; 160 on March 16 – 17; 155, 160, 150, 140, and 135 on March 18 – 22; 125 on March 23 – 24; 130 on March 25, and 140 on March 26 – 28.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on February 23 – 24; 10, 5, and 12 on February 25 – 27; 18, 16, and 8 on February 28 – March 2; 5 on March 3 – 4; 15, 18, 15, and 8 on March 5 – 8; 5 on March 9 – 14; 15 on March 15; 8 on March 16 – 17; 5 on March 18 – 20; 10 on March 21 – 23; 5 on March 24 – 25, and 8 on March 26 – 27.

Jon Jones, N0JK, wrote:

“There was a nice 6-meter F2 opening on February 16.

I logged [the] HC1MD/2 grid FI57 on 50 MHz FT8 at 1916 UTC. I found this opening by checking the DXMaps website. HC1MD/2 had a strong, steady signal. I operated from home using an attic dipole antenna. [I] also logged HC2FG.

Other area 6-meter operators such as WQ0P (EM19) and KF0M (EM17) also worked stations in Chile. The K index was 4, which I suspect may have helped.

On February 18, a number of North American stations worked Robert Felicite, 3B9FR, around 1600 UTC on 6-meter FT8.

(3B9FR is on Rodrigues Island in the Indian Ocean, off the southeast coast of South Africa)

Conditions were great [during] the ARRL [International] DX CW Contest on 10 meters. I operated [for] a couple of hours [on] Sunday morning [while] running 5 W and a quarter-wave whip fixed mobile. [I] worked [more than one] hundred stations

Europe, the Caribbean, South America, and Africa. Many of the Europeans were over S-9.”

Sunspot numbers for February 16 – 22 were 101, 86, 109, 112, 135, 106, and 100, with a mean of 107. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 163.2, 165, 167.2, 169, 159.8, 160.9, and 151.9, with a mean of 162.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 6, 6, 7, 8, 17, and 6, with a mean of 10.6. The middle latitude A index was 21, 4, 5, 4, 6, 15, and 4, with a mean of 8.4.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Please don’t forget to attend the Capitol Peak Repeater ANNUAL MEETING on Satuday,  February 25, 2023 at 1:00pm.

This is the only meeting we have during the year and is open to all hams. Get the latest reports and updates to the repeater. I think you will find it interesting, and you can meet the people who you talk to on the system. The meeting will take place at the South Bay Fire Department at 1:00 pm. (3506 Shincke Rd NE, Olympia, WA 98506) 

At 0725 UTC on February 15, 2023, the Australian Space Weather

Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

“A coronal mass ejection (CME) impact occurred around 2200 UTC on February 14. Magnetic field strength (Bz) has been southward for the majority of time since impact, and there is a chance of G1 geomagnetic conditions.”

Bz is the north-south direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

They predicted a disturbance for February 15 – 16.

For the latest geomagnetic conditions, I prefer this source:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

More on the IMF:

https://bit.ly/3E6IZ15

Many sunspots appeared during this reporting week, February 9 – 15: three new sunspot groups on February 9, one more on February 10, two more on February 11, another on February 12, and three more on February 13.

Recent sunspot images:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/12feb23/hmi1898.gif

This URL is for February 12. To see February 13, just change the “12feb23” string in the URL to “13feb23,” and so on, for any other dates.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 95.1 to 182.4, and average daily solar flux from 155.9 to 196.4.

Geomagnetic activity also rose, with average daily planetary A index going from 11.7 to 13.7, and middle latitude numbers from 7.6 to 10.7.

The most active days were at the beginning and end of the week, with planetary A index at 21 on February 9, and at 29 on February 15. On those two days, the college A index at Fairbanks, Alaska, was 33 and 46. The quietest day was Monday, February 13, when the planetary A index was 4.

The outlook for the next month looks a bit more modest, with predicted solar flux at 175 and 172 on February 16 – 17; 170 on February 18 – 19; 165 on February 20; 160 on February 21 – 23; 130 on February 24 – 26; 140 on February 27 to March 1; 145 on March 2 – 3; 150, 155, and 165 on March 4 – 6; 180 on March 7 – 13; 170 on March 14 – 15; 160 on March 16 – 18; and 150 on March 19.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 22, 30, and 12 on February 16 – 19; 5 on February 20 – 21; 8 on February 22; 10 on February 23 – 24; then 5, 5, and 8 on February 25 – 27; 5, 5, and 8 again on February 28 through March 2; 5, 5, and 16 on March 3 – 5; 18, 15, and 8 on March 6 – 8; and 5 on March 9 – 20.

Sunspot numbers for February 9 through 15, were 150, 190, 209, 197, 185, 206, and 140, with a mean of 182.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 214.9, 207.8, 209.5, 199.7, 189.2, 179.7, and 173.7, with a mean of 196.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 16, 11, 7, 4, 8, and 29, with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 10, 5, 3, 6, and 23, with a mean of 10.7.

For this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin ARLP006:

A period of rising solar activity returned this week.

Ten new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week, February 2 – 8, 2023: two on February 3, one each on February 4 – 5, four more on February 6, and two more on February 8.

Early on February 9, Spaceweather.com reported a large emerging sunspot over the sun’s southeast horizon.

The average daily sunspot number for this week rose from 80.7 to 95.1, and the average daily solar flux from 139.5 to 155.9.

Geomagnetic indicators rose as well. The planetary A index rose from 7.9 to 11.7, and the middle latitude numbers rose from 5.9 to 7.6.

The rise in geomagnetic activity was related to solar wind late in the reporting week.

Predicted solar flux is 192 on February 9; 195 on February 10 – 13; 190 on February 14 – 15; 170 on February 16; 150 on February 17 – 18; 145, 140, 135, 130, and 135 on February 19 – 23; 130 on February 24 – 26; 125 on February 27; 130 on February 28 – March 3; 135, 150, and 160 on March 4 – 6; 155 on March 7 – 8; 160 on March 9, and 155 on March 10 – 12.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on February 9 – 10; 5, 5, and 8 on February 11 – 13; 5 on February 14 – 17; 8 on February 18 – 19; 5 on February 20 – 21; 10 on February 22 – 24; 5, 5, and 8 on February 25 – 27; 5, 5, and 8 on February 28 – March 2; 5, 5, and 10 on March 3 – 5; 15, 15, 12, and 8 on March 6 – 9, and 5 on March 10 – 16.

Tamitha Skov’s latest, from February 5:

Sunspot numbers for February 2 through 8 were 56, 74, 66, 79, 139, 110, and 142, with a mean of 95.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 134.9, 134.5, 139, 144, 156.7, 184.7, and 197.6, with a mean of 155.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 9, 6, 5, 18, 20, and 18, with a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 5, 3, 13, 12, and 12, with a mean of 7.6.