At 0725 UTC on February 15, 2023, the Australian Space Weather
Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:
“A coronal mass ejection (CME) impact occurred around 2200 UTC on February 14. Magnetic field strength (Bz) has been southward for the majority of time since impact, and there is a chance of G1 geomagnetic conditions.”
Bz is the north-south direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).
They predicted a disturbance for February 15 – 16.
For the latest geomagnetic conditions, I prefer this source:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
More on the IMF:
Many sunspots appeared during this reporting week, February 9 – 15: three new sunspot groups on February 9, one more on February 10, two more on February 11, another on February 12, and three more on February 13.
Recent sunspot images:
https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/12feb23/hmi1898.gif
This URL is for February 12. To see February 13, just change the “12feb23” string in the URL to “13feb23,” and so on, for any other dates.
Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 95.1 to 182.4, and average daily solar flux from 155.9 to 196.4.
Geomagnetic activity also rose, with average daily planetary A index going from 11.7 to 13.7, and middle latitude numbers from 7.6 to 10.7.
The most active days were at the beginning and end of the week, with planetary A index at 21 on February 9, and at 29 on February 15. On those two days, the college A index at Fairbanks, Alaska, was 33 and 46. The quietest day was Monday, February 13, when the planetary A index was 4.
The outlook for the next month looks a bit more modest, with predicted solar flux at 175 and 172 on February 16 – 17; 170 on February 18 – 19; 165 on February 20; 160 on February 21 – 23; 130 on February 24 – 26; 140 on February 27 to March 1; 145 on March 2 – 3; 150, 155, and 165 on March 4 – 6; 180 on March 7 – 13; 170 on March 14 – 15; 160 on March 16 – 18; and 150 on March 19.
Predicted planetary A index is 18, 22, 30, and 12 on February 16 – 19; 5 on February 20 – 21; 8 on February 22; 10 on February 23 – 24; then 5, 5, and 8 on February 25 – 27; 5, 5, and 8 again on February 28 through March 2; 5, 5, and 16 on March 3 – 5; 18, 15, and 8 on March 6 – 8; and 5 on March 9 – 20.
Sunspot numbers for February 9 through 15, were 150, 190, 209, 197, 185, 206, and 140, with a mean of 182.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 214.9, 207.8, 209.5, 199.7, 189.2, 179.7, and 173.7, with a mean of 196.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 16, 11, 7, 4, 8, and 29, with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 10, 5, 3, 6, and 23, with a mean of 10.7.