Solar activity was lower this week, November 9 – 15, 2023, with the average daily sunspot numbers dropping from 89.7 to 80.1, and the average daily solar flux from 151.7 to 133.8.

If those numbers seem a little low lately, we should check the bulletin from the same week last year. In the November 18, 2022, bulletin, the average daily sunspot number changed from 79.8 to 72.3, so a year later we are definitely trending higher.

Geomagnetic indicators were also lower, with the planetary A index changing from 22.3 to 10.4, and the middle latitude A index from 14.6 to 8.6.

A single new sunspot group appeared on November 10, another on November 12, one more on November 13, and another on November 14.

The predicted solar flux is 120, 118, 116, 120, and 122 on November 16 – 20; 125 on November 21 – 22; 135 on November 23 – 25; 140, 148, and 152 November 26 – 28; 155 on November 29 through December 1; 152, 150, 148, and 145 on December 2 – 5; 140 on December 6 – 8; 145, 135, 130, and 125 on December 9 – 12, and 120 on December 13 – 15.

The predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on November 16 – 17; 5 on November 18 – 19; 8 on November 20 – 21; 5, 12, 18, 20, and 12 on November 22 – 26; 8 on November 27 – 28; 5 on November 29 through December 3; 10, 16, 12, and 10 on December 4 – 7; 5 on December 8 – 9; 8 on December 10 – 13, and 5 on December 14 – 18.

Check this site for an update of current conditions on various bands: https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/ Sunspot numbers for November 9 – 15, 2023, were 93, 93, 85, 78, 85, 86, and 41, with a mean of 80.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 138.7, 143.9, 141.5, 137.2, 132.7, 123.8, and 118.9, with a mean of 133.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 10, 5, 12, 16, 6, and 12, with a mean of 10.4. The middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 4, 10, 5, and 11, with a mean of 8.6.

This reporting week, ending on November 8, 2023, saw six new emerging sunspot groups; one on each day, except November 6.

Solar activity improved, with the average daily sunspot number increasing from 76.7 to 89.7. The average daily solar flux rose from 137.5 to 151.7.

Geomagnetic activity increased. The average daily planetary A index changed from 15.9 to 22.3 and the middle latitude A index rose from 11.9 to 14.6.

The most active days were Sunday and Monday when the planetary A index was 57 and 40.

Predicted solar flux is 146 on November 9; 145 on November 10 – 13; 150 on November 14 – 16; 123 and 123 on November 17 – 18; 125 on November 19 – 22; 130 on November 23 – 26; 132, 134, and 134 on November 27 – 29; 136 on November 30 through December 2, and 140 and 138 on December 3 – 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10, and 8 on November 9 – 11; 5, 5, 8, and 10 on November 12 – 15; 5 on November 16 – 21; 15, 10, and 15 on November 22 – 24; 15, 20, 15, and 8 on November 25 – 28, and 5 on November 29 through December 5.

Read about the recent aurora at https://bit.ly/467cs6d. Sunspot numbers for November 2 through 8, 2023, were 113, 106, 95, 81, 67, 74, and 92, with a mean of 89.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 158.4, 156.1, 155.3, 154.8, 146.2, 145.1, and 145.7, with a mean of 151.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 14, 57, 40, 18, and 16, with a mean of 22.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 12, 30, 27, 11, and 15, with a mean of 14.6.

Seven new sunspot groups emerged this reporting week. There were two on October 26, one on October 27, another on October 28, two more on October 31, and another on November 1.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 41.9 to 76.7, while the average daily solar flux increased from 123.5 to 137.5.

Predicted solar flux is 160, 162, and 162 on November 2 – 4; 160, 157, 150, 148, 136, 138, 136, and 134 on November 5 – 12; 130 on November 13 – 15; 125, 123, and 120 on November 16 – 18; 125 on November 19 – 22, and 130 on November 23 – 26.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 8, 12, 8, and 5 on November 2 – 7; 12 on November 8 – 9; 8 on November 10; 5 on November 11 – 13; 8 and 10 on November 14 – 15; 5 on November 16 – 21, and 15, 10, 15, 15, and 20 on November 22 – 26.

There might be an early peak of Solar Cycle 25. Read about it at https://bit.ly/3FF26jh and https://bit.ly/40ndQQN. Sunspot numbers for October 26 through November 1 were 57, 66, 70, 61, 62, 116, and 105, with a mean of 76.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 126.4, 127.5, 128, 135.2, 139.7, 147.3, and 158.6, with a mean of 137.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 11, 19, 28, 12, 9, and 9, with a mean of 15.9. Middle latitude A index was 18, 9, 13, 21, 10, 6, and 6, with a mean of 11.9.

Out informational net will be starting up again on November 5. 2023 at 8:00 PM. All licensed hams are encouraged to attend. You do not need to be a member of the repeater group to check into the net The net will run approximately 1/2 hour. See you then!

The recent decline in solar activity continues. The weekly average daily sunspot numbers, starting with ARLP039 on September 21, were 170.6, 128.6, 144.1, and 89.4. This week’s average daily sunspot number was 41.9. The weekly average daily solar flux for the same period was 168.8, 155.6, 159.1, 145.1, and 123.5.

On October 25, Spaceweather.com noted, “Solar Cycle 25 roared to life in 2021 – [2023], dashing predictions of a weak solar cycle. Forecasters have since been expecting a robust Solar Max in 2024 or 2025. Suddenly, however, sunspot counts are dropping.” They also noted that temporary lulls are common in strong sunspot cycles, and strong activity should resume soon, with a cycle peak occurring within the next 2 years. They provided a recent link to the NOAA Space Weather Scale at https://bit.ly/3FyVWko.

Three new sunspot groups appeared this week on October 20 – 22.

Predicted solar flux is 125 on October 26 – 28; 120 on October 29 through November 1; 150 on November 2 – 5; 140 on November 6 – 9; 135 on November 10 – 11; 145, 140, 135, and 135 on November 12 – 15; 140 on November 16 – 18; 135 and 140 on November 19 – 20, and 145 on November 21 – 24.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 5, 5, 18, and 10 on October 26 – 31; 5 on November 1 – 8; 12 and 8 on November 9 – 10; 5 on November 11 – 12; 12 on November 13 – 14; 10 and 8 on November 15 – 16; 5 on November 17 – 22, and 8 on November 23 – 26.

Jon Jones, N0JK, QST columnist for “The World Above 50 MHz QST” wrote:

“The weekend of October 20 – 22 had some outstanding propagation on 6 meters.

On the afternoon of Saturday, October 21, there was E-layer or sporadic-E propagation linking to trans-equatorial paths to the [South] Pacific from the Midwest. N0LL copied FK8CP and ZL1RS on just a ham stick vertical antenna while driving from Salina to his home in Smith Center, KS. He later worked E51WL from his home around 2130Z.

I was staying at the La Quinta Inn in Scottsdale for the weekend [and] had my MFJ-9406 [with me]. Using a dipole antenna in the hotel room, I copied N0LL EM09, N0KQY DM998, and N0OT DM88 on 6-meter Es, calling DX stations around 1945Z. Es in October are rare, and Es links rarer still.

[On October 22], I managed to work W5JAY EM26 on [6-meter] FT8 via Es at 0136 [UTC.] Power was 7 watts to the indoor dipole. East coast stations were working the South Pacific on Es links to TEP.

That next afternoon, Arizona had Es link[s] to TEP to South America. I copied XE1H DL80 at the first Es hop. 231022_233300 50.313 Rx FT8 -8 0.2 1612 CQ XE1H DL80.

October 24 at 2335 UTC copied PY5CC GG54 via Es link to TEP.

Spaceweather.com noted a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact [on] October 20. The active geomagnetic field boosted the TEP MUF and may have sparked some of the sporadic -E as well.

Note that this weekend is the SSB portion of the CQ World Wide DX Contest.

See https://www.cqww.com/ for more information.

Sunspot numbers for October 19 – 25, 2023, were 39, 56, 65, 48, 25, 34, and 26, with a mean of 41.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 128.7, 125.7, 122.6, 118.8, 122.1, 121.1, and 125.8, with a mean of 123.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 22, 8, 3, 4, and 4, with a mean of 8.4. The middle latitude A index was 8, 8, 13, 7, 2, 2, and 3, with a mean of 6.1.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

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