Equipment List

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K7RA Solar Report 12-9-21

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: One new sunspot group appeared on December 4, but 4 days later it was gone. Average daily sunspot number declined from 46.1 to 24.6, and no sunspots were visible on December 8. Average daily solar flux went from 90.9 to 82.6.

Predicted solar flux over the next month does not seem promising. The December 8 forecast shows 78 and 80 on December 9 – 10; 82 on December 11 – 16; 85 on December 17 – 18; 87 on December 19 – 22; 86 on December 23 – 27; 84 on December 28; 82 on December 29 – January 2; 80 on January 3 – 5; 82 on January 6 – 8; 80 on January 9 – 10; 82 on January 11, and 85 on January 12 – 14.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, 8, and 5 on December 9 – 12; 8 on December 13 – 14; 5 on December 15 – 16; 15, 12, 10, and 8 on December 17 – 20; 5 on December 21 – 26; 15, 18, and 12 on December 27 – 29; 8 on December 30 – January 3; 5 on January 4 – 5; 10, 8, 5, 12, and 10 on January 6 – 10; 5 on January 11 – 12, and 15, 12, 10, and 8 on January 13 – 16.

Sunspot numbers for December 2 – 8 were 45, 29, 35, 36, 14, 13, and 0, with a mean of 24.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 86.6, 85.3, 88.1, 82.7, 80, 78.9, and 76.9, with a mean of 82.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 9, 9, 7, 5, and 5, with a mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 7, 6, 6, 3, and 4, with a mean of 5.3.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA

K7RA Solar report 11-25-21

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity was up this week. Average daily sunspot number increased from 26.9 to 46.1, and average daily solar flux was up 10.8 points to 90.9. Geomagnetic indicators were a little higher. Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.9 to 8.7, and average daily middle latitude A index from 5.4 to 6.3.

Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 26, another on November 28, and two more on November 30.

On December 1, Spaceweather.com announced a geomagnetic storm watch: “Minor geomagnetic storms are possible on December 3 when a CME might sideswipe Earth’s magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled into space on November 29 by an erupting filament of magnetism in the sun’s southern hemisphere. According to NOAA computer models, the bulk of the CME should sail south of our planet with a near miss [or] just as likely as a glancing blow.”

Predicted solar flux for the next month has flux values peaking at 94 on December 27 – 28. The forecast sees values of 86 and 84 on December 2 – 3; 80 on December 4 – 5; 78 on December 6 – 7; 76 and 78 on December 8 – 9; 82 on December 10 – 12; 80 on December 13 – 14; 85 on December 15 – 21; 82 and 80 on December 22 – 23; 78 on December 24 – 25; 92 on December 26; 94 on December 27 – 28; 88 on December 29 – January 1; 85, 82, and 80 on January 2 – 4, and 82 on January 5 – 8.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 16, 12, and 8 on December 2 – 5; 12, 10, and 8 on December 6 – 8; 5 on December 9 – 11; 8, 12, and 10 on December 12 – 14; 5 on December 15 – 16; 8 and 10 on December 17 – 18; 5 on December 19 – 25; 8 on December 26; 5 on December 27 – 29; 10 on December 30 – 31; 8 on January 1, and 5 on January 2 – 7.

Robert Marston, AA6XE, offered these observations:

“We now stand at exactly 2 years since the Solar Cycle 24/25 minimum was recorded, and the most notable attribute of Solar Cycle 25 is its slow climb out. We have seen bursts of activity from the sun, where numerous active regions pop up with only a handful actually developing into numbered sunspot groups. The bulk of new regions that form quickly decay away.”

There will be more from AA6XE in Friday’s report and bulletin.

Sunspot numbers for November 25 – December 1 were 20, 52, 53, 53, 47, 61, and 37, with a mean of 46.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 93.6, 92.3, 91.8, 92.2, 89.8, 90, and 86.4, with a mean of 90.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 9, 11, and 18, with a mean of 8.7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 3, 7, 6, 8, and 14, with a mean of 6.3.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. A propagation bulletin archive is available.

Solar storm warning:

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‘Significant’ radio and GPS issues are expected within hours, according to the Met Office.A SOLAR storm is expected to hit Earth in the next 36 hours, causing radio and GPS problems, according to experts.The Met Office and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have both detected a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun that will “graze” the Earth, according to the agencies.A space weather physicist, Dr. Tamitha Skov, has warned that this could result in amateur radio blackouts and GPS problems.

A space weather physicist, Dr. Tamitha Skov, has warned that this could result in amateur radio blackouts and GPS problems. “Our Sun sends a Thanksgiving Holiday gift,” she tweeted.

“A solar storm that began yesterday, according to NOAA and the Met Office, will graze Earth to the south late November 27.“A sporadic aurora is possible at mid-latitudes, but it’s unlikely to be a big storm.” “On Earth’s nightside, expect radio and GPS problems.” “Satellite systems may experience significant charging,” according to NOAA, “resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.”

“First-look data suggest it might deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field,” according to SpaceWeather.com. On Wednesday, a filament of magma burst out of a 50,000-mile-long canyon on the Sun, creating towering walls of red-hot plasma.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) formed by debris from the blast, which is a large expulsion of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s outer layer that can cause a geomagnetic storm.

When a geomagnetic storm collides with the Earth’s atmosphere, it can cause havoc. “A geomagnetic storm is a major disturbance of Earth’s magnetosphere that occurs when there is a very efficient exchange of energy from the solar wind into the space environment surrounding Earth,” according to astronomers at SpaceWeather.com.

“These storms are caused by variations in the solar wind, which cause major changes in the Earth’s magnetosphere’s currents, plasmas, and fields.”

CMEs are the most powerful type of geomagnetic storm, sending a stream of electrical charges and magnetic fields as far as the earth at speeds of up to three million miles per hour.

Even the lowest-intensity G1 storm, which we might see tomorrow, can cause major disruption if it collides with a satellite.

When this happens, satellite operations may be disrupted, and power grid fluctuations may occur.

However, lucky spectators who aren’t accustomed to seeing auroras may be treated to spectacular displays during these geomagnetic storms.

Forecasters predicted this earlier this month.


K7RA Solar report

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: New sunspots appeared on November 14 and 16, but solar activity was lower, and geomagnetic activity was lower as well.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 36.4 last week to 30.9 in the November 11 – 17 reporting week. Solar flux averages were off as well, dipping to to 80.8 this week compared to 89.1 last week.

Average daily planetary A index declined from 18 to 7, and average middle latitude numbers went from 11.7 to 4.9. Middle latitude A index daily average went all the way down to zero on November 13.

We see no high numbers in the solar flux prediction, which has 78 on November 18 – 20; 80 on November 21 – 24; 83 on November 25; 85 on November 26 – 27; 83 on November 28 – 29; 85 on November 30 – December 2; 82 on December 3 – 11; 79, 80, and 79 on December 12 – 14; 78, 77, 79, and 81 on December 15 – 18; 83 on December 19 – 21, and 85 on December 22 – 24.

Predicted planetary A index is a quiet 5 on November 18 – 20; then 12 and 8 on November 21 – 22; 5 on November 23 – 27; 10, 10, and 8 on November 28 – 30; 5 on December 1 – 12; 12 on December 13 – 14, and back to 5 on December 15 – 24.

Sunspot numbers for November 11 – 17 were 39, 39, 24, 23, 23, 35, and 33, with a mean of 30.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 84.5, 82.9, 81, 78.7, 79.3, 80.1, and 79.2, with a mean of 80.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 3, 4, 9, 13, and 12, with a mean of 7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 0, 2, 6, 11, and 9, with a mean of 4.9.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website