The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued the following Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning #23/74 at 2321 UT on November 29, 2023:
“Several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are expected to impact Earth on November 30 and December 1, 2023. Two CMEs were observed on November 27 that were expected to arrive on November 30, followed shortly by a very mild, glancing blow from a third. One or possibly two halo CMEs were observed on November 29, which are Earth-directed. It is likely that all or some of these CMEs will combine on their trajectory toward Earth, making it difficult to pinpoint an exact arrival time. However, G3-G4 geomagnetic conditions are possible over this period.”
Over the past reporting week, 10 new sunspot groups appeared. There were three on November 23, one each day on November 24 – 26, another on November 28, and three more on November 29.
Solar numbers increased, with the average daily sunspot number rising dramatically from 83.3 to 165.9, doubling from the previous week.
The average daily solar flux rose from 146 to 181.5.
Geomagnetic numbers rose slightly, with the planetary A index changing from 10.1 to 11.6, and the middle latitude number changing from 7.3 to 7.6.
Predicted solar flux is 175 on November 30; 170 on December 1; 165 on December 2 – 3; 160 on December 4; 150 on December 5 – 6; 140 on December 7 – 8; 145 on December 9 – 10; 140 on December 11 – 16; 150 on December 17, and 160 on December 18 – 28.
Predicted planetary A index is 30, 56, and 22 on November 30 through December 2; 10, 10, 12, 10, and 10 on December 3 – 7; 5 on December 8 – 11; 10 and 8 on December 12 – 13; 5 on December 14 – 17; 15, 25, 8, and 5 on December 18 – 21, and 20, 10, 10, 8, and 5 on December 22 – 26.
Watch
a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, about solar storms at https://youtu.be/qiHtkXfZnQo.
Sunspot numbers for
November 23 – 29, 2023, were 176, 184, 179, 169, 159, 130, and 164, with a mean
of 83.3. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 194.2, 178, 176.4, 180.2, 187.3, 183.5,
and 170.6, with a mean of 146. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 38, 10,
7, 7, and 5, with a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 18, 9, 2,
6, and 9, with a mean of 7.3.