Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin, ARLP004:

From the first week of 2023, we saw a dramatic and welcome increase in solar activity, but it softened in this reporting week, January 19 – 25.

Average daily sunspot numbers for the weeks starting with the final reporting week for 2022 were 96.1, 97, 135.9, 173.4, and 162.

Over the same period, average daily solar flux was 143.8, 157.8, 181.2, 221.8, and 198.9.

The northern hemisphere winter solstice was more than a month ago, and through the next two months we will see a gradual transition toward spring conditions.

Predicted solar flux over the next month shows values peaking near 205 on February 14 – 15. Predicted numbers are 170 and 165 on January 26 – 27; 160 on January 28 – 31; 165, 170, 180, and 185 on February 1 – 4; 190 on February 5 – 6; 195 on February 7 – 12; 200 on February 13; 205 on February 14 – 15; 200 on February 16 – 18; 195, 200, and 190 on February 19 – 21; 185 on February 22 – 23; 180 on February 24 – 25, and 175 on February 26 – 28. Flux values may peak above 200 again after March 10.

Predicted planetary A index, an indicator of geomagnetic instability, is 10 on January 26; 8 on January 27 – 29; 5 on January 30 through February 1; 8 on February 2; 5 on February 3 – 6; 12 on February 7 – 8; 15, 12, and 5 on February 9 – 11; 8 on February 12 – 13; 5 on February 14 – 17; 8, 10, 10, 12, and 10 on February 18 – 22; 8 on February 23 – 25, and 5 on February 26 – 27.

More dramatic solar warnings.

https://bit.ly/3XGqNm

Sunspot numbers for January 19 – 25, 2023, were 166, 197, 194, 166, 144, 127, and 140, with a mean of 162. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 226.1, 217.5, 208.7, 198.6, 189.1, 180.2, and 171.8, with a mean of 198.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 17, 9, 7, 4, and 7, with a mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 11, 7, 5, 3, and 5, with a mean of 5.9.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin:

Last week’s bulletin opened with “Wow!” I don’t know what to say about this week, except it is beyond “wow!”

This actually has me thinking about Cycle 19.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 135.9 to 173.4, while average solar flux went to 221.8 from 181.2.

From Spaceweather.com: “If sunspot production continues apace for the rest of January, the monthly sunspot number will reach a 20-year high.”

Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 13.9.

On January 15, 2023, planetary A index reached a peak of 30, a very high value indicating a geomagnetic storm. Conditions were stormy throughout the week due to flares and coronal mass ejections. On that day in Fairbanks, Alaska, the college A index was 53. There was a large polar cap absorption event.

Nine new sunspot groups appeared during this reporting week, January 12 – 18. One on January 12, four on January 13, two more on January 15, and two more, one each, on January 17 – 18.

Predicted solar flux is 220, 218, 215, 212, and 210 on January 19 – 23; 206 on January 24 – 25; 200 and 190 on January 26 – 27; 185 on January 28 – 29; 190 on January 30 through February 2; 195 and 200 on February 3 – 4; 205 on February 5 – 6; 210 on February 7 – 11, then a big jump to 235 and 230 on February 12 – 13; 225 on February 14 – 16; 220 on February 17, and 215 on February 18 – 19.

Predicted planetary A index is 16, 12, 16, 12 and 8 on January 19 -23; 5 on January 24 – 25; 8, 12, and 8 on January 26 – 28; 5 on January 29 – 31; 12 and 8 on February 1 – 2; 5 on February 3 – 6; 12, 12, 15, and 12 on February 7 – 10; 5 on February 11 – 13, then 8, 15, 10, and 7 on February 14 – 17.

Sunspots in the news:

https://bit.ly/3Hdilp4

In Friday’s bulletin, look for a report from KA3JAW about his recent experiences on 10 -meter FM.

Sunspot numbers January 12 – 18, 2023, were 151, 181, 170, 177, 186, 185, and 164, with a mean of 173.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 211.6, 208.5, 227.8, 234.3, 228.1, 221.7, and 220.3, with a mean of 221.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 12, 11, 30, 14, 6, and 15, with a mean of 13.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 9, 17, 10, 5, and 11, with a mean of 10.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin, ARLP002:

Sunspot numbers are up and geomagnetic disturbances are down. What could be better? Okay, maybe Cycle 19, but that was 66 years ago and by far the all-time largest sunspot cycle.

But this is now, we are in Cycle 25, and this sunspot cycle is emerging better than the consensus prediction. It is predicted to peak 30 months from now in the summer of 2025. Solar cycles tend to ramp up quickly and decline slowly, so we can look forward to great propagation for years to come.

There were six new emerging sunspot groups in our reporting week, January 5 – 11. The first two appeared January 5, the next on January 8, another on January 9, and two more on January 10.

The average daily sunspot number rose from 97 to 135.9, and the average daily solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, compared to last week.

The average daily planetary A index declined from 15.4 to 6.7, and the middle latitude A index from 10.9 to 6.1.

Compare the solar numbers to last year. A year ago, in ARLP002, the average daily sunspot number was only 42.4 (135.9 now), and the average daily solar flux was 101.6 (181.2 now). Ten and 12 meters now have openings every day.

The predicted solar flux is 196 on January 12 and 13; 198, 196, 194, 192, 190, 188, and 140 on January 14 – 20; 130 on January 21 – 22; 135 on January 23; 140 on January 24 – 26; 145 on January 27; 155, 155, and 160 on January 28 – 30; 170 on January 31 – February 2; 175 and 180 on February 3 – 4; 185 on February 5 – 6; 180, 178, and 175 on February 7 – 9; 155 on February 10 – 12, and 145 on February 13.

The predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 12 – 17; 10, 18, 15, and 8 on January 18 – 21; 5 on January 22 – 24; 8, 22, 12, and 8 on January 25 – 28; 5 on January 29 – 31; 12 and 8 on February 1 – 2; 5 on February 3 – 5; 10, 12, and 8 on February 6 – 8, and 5 on February 9 – 13.

Jon Jones, N0JK, Editor for “The World Above 50 MHz” column in QST, writes:

“There was a 6-meter F2 opening between Ecuador and North America on January 6, 2023, around 1530 UTC, mostly between the southeast United States and Ecuador. Solar flux was 154.” (Actually, solar flux was 154.3 on January 5 and 172.4 on January 6).

“Later, there was some weak sporadic-E on 6 meters. I logged W4IMD (EM84) 1942 UTC, and W7JW (EN82) on 6-meter FT8 via Es at 1954 UTC on January 6. High solar activity this week.”

Sunspot numbers on January 5 through 11 were 103, 101, 104, 117, 142, 201, and 183, with a mean of 135.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 154.3, 172.4, 178.9, 183.8, 190.9, 193, and 195.1, with a mean of 181.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 6, 8, 5, 7, and 9, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8, with a mean of 6.1.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted on Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Please plan to attend the Capitol Peak Repeater ANNUAL MEETING on Satuday,  February 25, 2023 at 1:00pm.

This is the only meeting we have during the year and is open to all hams. Get the latest reports and updates to the repeater. I think you will find it interesting, and you can meet the people who you talk to on the system. The meeting will take place at the South Bay Fire Department at 1:00 pm. (3506 Shincke Rd NE, Olympia, WA 98506) 

There have been some major changes done to the repeater system recently. Please join us and find out what has been done, what will be done, what needs to be done and what you would like to see done.

The Repeater Group will again have two tables at the Mike and Key Swap Meet. This will take place on March 11, 2023 at the Puyallup Fairgrounds. We are asking for your donations of good used ham and electronic equipment for this event. This is the only fund raiser that we have during the year and it is very important for the repeater maintenance fund. Please clean out your ham shack and see if there is something you might be willing to donate to this worthy cause. If you have a donation, contact Don KD7AVI or bring it to the annual meeting. We are also looking for volunteers to help set up the tables on Friday March 10th and to help run the tables on the day of the event.

See you at the Annual Meeting,