Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity persisted over the reporting week, although numbers were a bit lower. Average daily sunspot number declined from 124.4 to 110.1. Average daily solar flux slipped just slightly from 125 to 124. Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 6.4, and average middle latitude numbers changed from 6.4 to 4.4.

New sunspot groups appeared on December 25, 26, and 28.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is expected to peak at 130 on January 18 – 19, and the numbers are 110, 108, and 105 on December 30 – January 1; 104 on January 2 – 3; 100 on January 4; 98 on January 5 – 6; then 92, 100, 105, and 110 on January 7 – 10; 115 on January 11 – 13; 118 on January 14 – 15; 122 and 128 on January 16 – 17; 130 on January 18 – 19; 128, 125, and 120 on January 20 – 22; 125 on January 23 – 24; 122 on January 25; 120 on January 26 – 27; 115, 110, 100, and 95 on January 28 – 31; 90 on February 1 – 2, and 92 and 100 on February 3 – 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on December 30 – 31, then 6, 12, and 8 on January 1 – 3; 5 on January 4 – 10; 10 on January 11 – 12; 5 on January 13 – 14; 8 and 12 on January 15 – 16; 8 on January 17 – 18; 5 on January 19 – 22; 8, 10, 8, and 8 on January 23 – 26, and 5 on January 27 – February 6.

Sunspot numbers for December 23 – 29 were 143, 145, 117, 95, 85, 107, and 79, with a mean of 110.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 129.8, 126.2, 130.7, 125.4, 123.9, 120.5, and 111.4, with a mean of 124. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 7, 3, 10, 9, and 7, with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 5, 2, 8, 6, and 5, with a mean of 4.4.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website

Even though we are a non-affiliated group you might want to read this bulletin from the ARRL…..

ARRL to Oppose Forest Service Administrative Fees for Amateur Facilities

The US Forest Service is proposing to implement a statutorily required annual fee for new and existing communications use authorizations to cover the costs of administering its authorization program. ARRL plans to vigorously oppose the imposition of the proposed fees on Amateur Radio.

The Forest Service proposal results from requirements set forth in the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 (aka “the Farm Bill”). Specifically, section 8705(c)(3)(b) of the Farm Bill directs the Forest Service to issue regulations that require fees for issuing communications use authorizations based on the cost to the Agency for maintenance or other activities to be performed by the Agency “as a result of the location or modification of a communications facility.”

The Forest Service is responsible for managing Federal lands and authorizes the use and occupancy of National Forest System (NFS) lands for communications facilities that provide communications services for adjacent rural and urban communities. The Agency said in its proposal that it administers more than 3,700 special use authorizations on NFS lands for infrastructure that supports more than 10,000 wireless communications uses at 1,367 communications sites.

According to the Forest Service Notice published in the December 22,2021 issue of the Federal Register, revenues from the proposed fee, “would provide the funds necessary to support a more modernized, efficient, and enhanced communications use program,” and will “cover the costs of administering the Agency’s communications use program.” Costs, as laid out in section 8705(f)(4) of the Farm Bill, may include expenditures for such things as “on-site reviews of communications sites, developing communications site management plans, hiring and training personnel for the communications use program, conducting internal and external outreach for and national oversight of the communications use program, and obtaining or improving access to communications sites on NFS lands.”

ARRL encourages Amateur Radio licensees to file comments opposing the imposition of the proposed administrative fee on Amateur Radio users. Comments must be received in writing by no later than February 22, 2022. Comments may be submitted online at the Federal Rulemaking Portal or via USPS mail to Director, Lands & Realty Management Staff, 201 14th Street SW, Washington, DC 20250-1124, and must include the identifier “RIN 0596-AD44.”

Click anywhere on this paragraph (except for the last two words) to see a list of equipment that the repeater group is selling for a long-time and fellow member of the repeater group and his family. If you have any questions please contact Jeremy AG7WT.

The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: One new sunspot group appeared on December 4, but 4 days later it was gone. Average daily sunspot number declined from 46.1 to 24.6, and no sunspots were visible on December 8. Average daily solar flux went from 90.9 to 82.6.

Predicted solar flux over the next month does not seem promising. The December 8 forecast shows 78 and 80 on December 9 – 10; 82 on December 11 – 16; 85 on December 17 – 18; 87 on December 19 – 22; 86 on December 23 – 27; 84 on December 28; 82 on December 29 – January 2; 80 on January 3 – 5; 82 on January 6 – 8; 80 on January 9 – 10; 82 on January 11, and 85 on January 12 – 14.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, 8, and 5 on December 9 – 12; 8 on December 13 – 14; 5 on December 15 – 16; 15, 12, 10, and 8 on December 17 – 20; 5 on December 21 – 26; 15, 18, and 12 on December 27 – 29; 8 on December 30 – January 3; 5 on January 4 – 5; 10, 8, 5, 12, and 10 on January 6 – 10; 5 on January 11 – 12, and 15, 12, 10, and 8 on January 13 – 16.

Sunspot numbers for December 2 – 8 were 45, 29, 35, 36, 14, 13, and 0, with a mean of 24.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 86.6, 85.3, 88.1, 82.7, 80, 78.9, and 76.9, with a mean of 82.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 9, 9, 7, 5, and 5, with a mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 7, 6, 6, 3, and 4, with a mean of 5.3.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity was up this week. Average daily sunspot number increased from 26.9 to 46.1, and average daily solar flux was up 10.8 points to 90.9. Geomagnetic indicators were a little higher. Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.9 to 8.7, and average daily middle latitude A index from 5.4 to 6.3.

Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 26, another on November 28, and two more on November 30.

On December 1, Spaceweather.com announced a geomagnetic storm watch: “Minor geomagnetic storms are possible on December 3 when a CME might sideswipe Earth’s magnetic field. The storm cloud was hurled into space on November 29 by an erupting filament of magnetism in the sun’s southern hemisphere. According to NOAA computer models, the bulk of the CME should sail south of our planet with a near miss [or] just as likely as a glancing blow.”

Predicted solar flux for the next month has flux values peaking at 94 on December 27 – 28. The forecast sees values of 86 and 84 on December 2 – 3; 80 on December 4 – 5; 78 on December 6 – 7; 76 and 78 on December 8 – 9; 82 on December 10 – 12; 80 on December 13 – 14; 85 on December 15 – 21; 82 and 80 on December 22 – 23; 78 on December 24 – 25; 92 on December 26; 94 on December 27 – 28; 88 on December 29 – January 1; 85, 82, and 80 on January 2 – 4, and 82 on January 5 – 8.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 16, 12, and 8 on December 2 – 5; 12, 10, and 8 on December 6 – 8; 5 on December 9 – 11; 8, 12, and 10 on December 12 – 14; 5 on December 15 – 16; 8 and 10 on December 17 – 18; 5 on December 19 – 25; 8 on December 26; 5 on December 27 – 29; 10 on December 30 – 31; 8 on January 1, and 5 on January 2 – 7.

Robert Marston, AA6XE, offered these observations:

“We now stand at exactly 2 years since the Solar Cycle 24/25 minimum was recorded, and the most notable attribute of Solar Cycle 25 is its slow climb out. We have seen bursts of activity from the sun, where numerous active regions pop up with only a handful actually developing into numbered sunspot groups. The bulk of new regions that form quickly decay away.”

There will be more from AA6XE in Friday’s report and bulletin.

Sunspot numbers for November 25 – December 1 were 20, 52, 53, 53, 47, 61, and 37, with a mean of 46.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 93.6, 92.3, 91.8, 92.2, 89.8, 90, and 86.4, with a mean of 90.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 9, 11, and 18, with a mean of 8.7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 3, 7, 6, 8, and 14, with a mean of 6.3.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. A propagation bulletin archive is available.