I am a HAM that has been into Capitol Forest many times. I’ve been on the dirt back roads in dry, muddy, and snowy conditions. Yesterday’s adventure was no different. I started into the forest on a beautiful late afternoon. I like to go up in elevation so I can operate on HF with minimal power and use the height as the advantage. I decided to go up to a favorite spot I know of near the repeater site. The road was completely dry, and then I saw some small patches of snow. I rounded a corner and the snow became very deep. By the time I made the decision to stop I was in it. I started to back down only to find I was being pushed towards ditch. By the time I went forward to correct I was stuck.

Upon realizing my predicament, I grabbed the HT and called out on the repeater. Luckily it was shortly before a net, so there were plenty of ears listening. Hearing my issue, Duke,KK7EGK and Josh,WA7AW contacted me and soon they formulated a plan. In under 2 hours they had arrived with tools to help get my vehicle freed.  

Now would I have got this response from anywhere else on a late Sunday afternoon? Probably not.

Thank you to everyone on the Capital Peak repeater that assisted with ideas, input, and general uplifting chat. As mentioned I have been into Capitol Forest many times to operate for Parks On The Air (POTA). Although I hold the top spot for this location, It wouldn’t be possible without the fellow HAMs that know the peak roads even better than me. We all make mistakes, and my lesson has been learned.

Thank you Capital Peak Repeater Group!

73 Eric Mallek – K7EVM

Sunspot numbers were lower again this week, with the average declining from 143.6 two weeks ago to 118.7 last week, and now 68 this week. Average daily solar flux sank eight points, from 153.6 last week to 145.6 this week.

Six new sunspot groups emerged over the week: one on March 17, another March 18, three more on March 19, one more on March 21, and another on March 22.

Predicted solar flux is 155, 150, and 145 on March 23 – 25; 140 on March 26 – 27, then 130, 130, and 140 on March 28 – 30; 138 on March 31 through April 1, then 136, 136, and 134 on April 2 – 4; 132 on April 5 – 7; 130 on April 8 – 9, then 132, 135, 138, and 140 on April 10 – 13; 142 on April 14 – 15; 143 on April 16; 140 on April 17 – 18; 142 on April 19 – 21, and 144 on April 22.

Predicted planetary A index is very active over the next few days, at 20, 40, 30, 20, and 15 on March 23 – 27; 8 on March 28 – 29; 20 and 18 on March 30 – 31; 12 on April 1 – 2; 10 and 8 on April 3 – 4; 5 on April 5 – 9, then 15, 12, 8, and 5 on April 10 – 13: 8 on April 14 – 15, then 12, 10, 5, and 5 on April 16 – 19, then 10, 36, 20, 10, and 8 April 20 – 24.

Sunspot numbers for March 16 through 22, 2023, were 84, 58, 35, 73, 75, 70, and 81, with a mean of 68. 10.7-centimeter flux was 135.4, 134.2, 140.3, 142.7, 156.1, 151.6, and 158.9, with a mean of 145.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 8, 10, 13, 8, and 17, with a mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 6, 8, 10, 8, and 14, with a mean of 8.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Six new sunspot groups emerged over the past week: two on March 9, another on March 10, one more on March 12, and another two on March 14.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this week.

Average daily sunspot numbers softened from 143.6 to 118.7, and average daily solar flux went from 181.6 to 153.6.

Predicted solar flux is 142, 150, 148, 146, 148, and 146 on March 16-21; 160 on March 22-23; 155 on March 24-26; 150 on March 27-28; 145 on March 29-30; 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March 31 through April 4; 165 on April 5-8; 170 on April 9-11, and 175, 180, 180, 175, 170, and 165 on April 12-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 25 and 10 on March 16-17; 5 on March 18-19; 8 on March 20-21; 5 on March 22-23; 12, 16, 26, 18, 10, 8, 24, and 22 on March 24-31; 16 on April 1-2; 14, 12, 8, and 10 on April 3-6; 8 on April 7-8; 5, 8, 22, and 8 on April 9-12; 5 on April 13-14, and 8 and 16 on April 15-16.

Before Friday’s bulletin, check out the information on this DR2W propagation modeling site, recently from WB6MPH and last fall, from KB2S:

https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don’t forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

Sunspot numbers for March 9 through 15, 2023, were 155, 135, 126, 135, 87, 97, and 96, with a mean of 118.7. 10.7 cm flux was 178.8, 171.2, 157.4, 150, 143.3, 138.5, and 135.7, with a mean of 153.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 11, 7, 8, 3, 17, and 29, with a mean of 13.1. Middle latitude A index was 14, 10, 5, 6, 2, 12, and 19, with a mean of 9.9.

So far this month, two new sunspot groups appeared on March 1, one on March 2, three on March 3, one on March 5, two on March 6, and one on March 7.

The average daily sunspot numbers rose from 126.3 to 143.6.

The average daily solar flux changed from 158.2 to 181.6.

The average daily planetary A index declined from 27.7 to 14.6, and the average middle latitude numbers went from 18.9 to 10.7, reflecting the quieter conditions following the upsets of the week before.

The Dominion Radio Observatory, the source for solar flux data, is way up at 49.5 degrees north longitude in eastern British Columbia in Penticton. For much of the year the sun is low in the sky, so all winter they do their thrice daily readings at 1800, 2000, and 2200 UTC. But on March 1, they shifted over to 1700, 2000, and 2300 UTC. The local noon (2000 UTC) reading is the official solar flux for the day.

You can see the data and the dates here:

https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

The vernal equinox, when the Northern and Southern hemispheres are bathed in equal solar radiation, is less than 2 weeks away.

Predicted solar flux shows values peaking now, and again on March 16 – 19.

Flux values are expected at 178, 175, 172, and 165 on March 9 – 12; 170 on March 13 – 15; 175, 180, 180, 175, 170, and 165 on March 16 – 21; 160 on March 22 – 23; 155 on March 24 – 26; 150 on March 27 – 28; 145 on March 29 – 30; 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March 31 through April 4, and 165 on April 5 – 8.

The predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 8, 10, and 8 on March 9 – 13; 5 on March 14 – 15; 8 on March 16 – 17; 5, 8, and 16 on March 18 – 20; 5 on March 21 – 23; 12, 16, 26, 18, and 10 on March 24 – 28; 8, 24, and 16 on March 29 – 31; 20 on April 1 – 2; 16 and 8 on April 3 – 4, and 5 on April 5 – 10.

Dr. Tony Phillips of https://spaceweather.com posted this animation of sunspot AR3245 splitting, which was captured by NASA’s SDO:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/07mar23/splitup.gif

AR3245 is seen in the SE quadrant (lower left). Sunspot numbers for March 2 through 8 were 103, 133, 122, 137, 173, 191, and 146, with a mean of 143.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 168.8, 190.9, 181.6, 179.8, 188, 180.3, and 181.9, with a mean of 181.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 22, 15, 22, 15, 11, and 8, with a mean of 14.6. The middle latitude A index was 8, 16, 10, 17, 11, 7, and 6, with a mean of 10.7.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.Share your reports and observations

This was a busy week for geomagnetic storms. A solar wind stream from an equatorial hole and a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seemingly blew geomagnetic numbers off the scale, with the planetary A index on Monday hitting 94. An aurora was visible as far south as Colorado.

This week, the source of the 10.7-centimeter solar flux from the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in Kaleden, British Columbia, was again saturated by solar wind on February 25, and the measurement was 279.3. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) corrected this to 152, which I thought was a bit too low. The other recent saturation was on February 17, at 343.1, but for some reason, the NOAA let this stand.

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 107 to 126.3, but average daily solar flux declined from 162.4 to 158.2.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 10.6 to 27.7.

Over the next few weeks, it appears that solar flux values should hit a peak around March 17 – 18.

Predicted solar flux is 164, 162, and 158 on March 2 – 4; 154 on March 5 – 8; 165 on March 9 – 12; 170 on March 13 – 15; 175 on March 16; 180 on March 17 – 18; 175, 170, and 165 on March 19 – 21; 160 on March 22 – 23; 155 on March 24 – 26; 150 on March 27 – 28; 145 on March 29 – 30, and 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March 31 through April 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 12, 18, 24, 14, and 8 on March 2 – 8; 5 on March 9 – 14; 15, 8, 8, 5, 8, and 15 on March 15 – 20; 5 on March 21 – 23; 12, 16, 56, 32, 16, and 10 on March 24 – 29; 8 on March 30 – 31, and 16, 18, and 15 on April 1 – 3.

The predicted A index of 56 and 32 on March 26 – 27 suggests a return of this week’s disturbance in the next solar rotation.

Newsweek reported a radio blackout at the following link:

https://bit.ly/3YsJREJ

Sky & Telescope also reported on aurora season:

https://bit.ly/3ZbC1As

The News Tribune wrote a story about the northern lights:

https://bit.ly/3ymZrqR

The above story features western Washington, where I live. Unfortunately, the sky was overcast, but folks in eastern Washington were able to see the aurora. Remember that many of the images you see were from cameras with a long exposure time, which makes them much brighter than what can be seen with the naked eye.

Thanks to spaceweather.com for this NASA video clip of sunspot group AR3234 growing as it comes over our sun’s eastern limb:

https://bit.ly/3J1IIiJ

Sunspot numbers for February 23 through March 1, 2023, were 108, 130, 129, 120, 192, 100, and 105, with a mean of 107. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 148.2, 164.1, 152, 159, 161.2, 160.9, and 162, with a mean of 162.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 6, 10, 26, 94, 28, and 8, with a mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 16, 4, 9, 18, 60, 19, and 6, with a mean of 8.4.