St. Patrick’s Day Report

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, Washington reports: On March 11 at 0431 UTC, Australia’s Space Forecast Centre issued a warning. “A slow coronal mass ejection has been observed late on 10 March, and event modeling suggests arrival at the Earth late on 13 March. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 14 March 2022.”

We observed an active sun this week. Geomagnetic indicators peaked on Saturday, March 5, when Alaska’s high-latitude college A index reached 42.

Again this week, sunspots covered the sun every day. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 44 to 87.4, and average daily solar flux went from 98.5 to 115.5. Geomagnetic indicators were also higher. Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.3 to 11.4.

The vernal equinox is in a little over a week, 1533 UTC on Sunday, March 20, when Earth will be bathed in an equal amount of solar radiation over both Southern and Northern Hemispheres, good for HF propagation. It is the first day of spring in the Northern Hemisphere, and fall in the southern.

Predicted solar flux is 120 on March 11 – 12; 115 on March 13; 110 on March 14 – 16; 105 on March 17; 100 on March 18 – 21; then 101 and 103 on March 22 – 23; 104 on March 24 – 27; then 110, 115, and 116 on March 28 – 30; 118 on March 31 through April 1; 120 on April 2; 116 on April 3 – 4; then 115 and 112 on April 5 – 6; 110 on April 7 – 9; then 108, 102, 98, and 99 on April 10 – 13; then 100 on April 14 – 17.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 11; 5 on March 12 – 13; then 10, 18, 15, 5, and 8 on March 14 – 18; then 12 on March 19 – 20; 15 on March 21; 7 on March 22 – 24; then 5, 10 and 8, on March 25 – 27; 5 on March 28 – 29; then 10, 12, 25, 20, and 10 on March 30 through April 3; 5 on April 4 – 6; then 15, 20, and 12 on April 7 – 9; 5 on April 10 – 13; then 8 on April 14, and 10 on April 15 – 16.

Sunspot numbers for March 3 through 9, 2022 were 92, 77, 95, 82, 84, 93, and 89, with a mean of 87.4. 10.7-centimeter flux was 110.9, 113.1, 120.1, 115.7, 118.3, 115.3, and 114.8, with a mean of 115.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 27, 18, 9, 6, and 5, with a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 7, 19, 13, 7, 5, and 4, with a mean of 8.3.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

Solar Report 3/10/22

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: We watched an active sun this week. Geomagnetic indicators peaked on Saturday, March 5, when Alaska’s high latitude college A index reached 42.

Again this week, sunspots covered the sun each day. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 44 to 87.4, and average daily solar flux went from 98.5 to 115.5. Geomagnetic indicators were also higher. Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.3 to 11.4.

Predicted solar flux is 115 and 114 on March 10 – 11; 112 on March 12 – 14; 110 on March 15 – 16; 99 on March 17; 100 on March 18 – 21; 101 and 103 on March 22 – 23; 104 on March 24 – 27; 110, 115, and 116 on March 28 – 30; 118 on March 31 – April 1; 120 on April 2; 116 on April 3 – 4; 115 and 112 on April 5 – 6; 110 on April 7 – 9, and 108, 102, 98 and 99 on April 10 – 13.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 10 – 11; 5 on March 12 – 14; 8 on March 15 – 16; 5 and 8 on March 17 – 18; 12 on March 19 – 20; 15 on March 21; 7 on March 22 – 24; 5, 10, and 8 on March 25 – 27; 5 on March 28 – 29; 10, 12, 25, 20, and 10 on March 30 – April 3; 5 on April 4 – 6; 15, 20, and 12 on April 7 – 9, and 5 on April 10 – 13.

Sunspot numbers for March 3 – 9 were 92, 77, 95, 82, 84, 93, and 89, with a mean of 87.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 110.9, 113.1, 120.1, 115.7, 118.3, 115.3, and 114.8, with a mean of 115.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 27, 18, 9, 6, and 5, with a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 7, 19, 13, 7, 5, and 4, with a mean of 8.3.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA

3/5/22 Solar Report

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Solar activity was weak over the February 24 – March 2 reporting week with average daily sunspot numbers weakening from 54.3 to 44, but average daily solar flux rising slightly from 95.4 to 98.3.

Geomagnetic numbers were moderate. Average daily planetary A index declined from 9.6 to 7.3, and the middle latitude index from 7.3 to 5.6.

Predicted solar flux is 115 on March 3 – 4; 110 on March 5 – 6; 105 on March 7; 100 on March 8 – 10; 99 on March 11 – 13; 98 on March 14; 95 on March 15 – 16; 96, 97, 98, and 99 on March 17 – 20; 100 on March 21 – 22; 101 and 100 on March 23 – 24; 102 on March 25 – 26; 99 and 102 on March 27 – 28; 105 on March 29 – 31; 102 on April 1 – 2; 101 on April 3 – 4, and 100 on April 5 – 6.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, and 8 on March 3 – 6; 5 on March 7 – 10; 15, 12, 8, 5, and 8 on March 11 – 15; 5 on March 16 – 17; 10 on March 18; 15 on March 19 – 21; 7 on March 22 – 24; 5 and 10 on March 25 – 26; 12 on March 27 – 28; 8 on March 29 – 30; 12 on March 31; 15 on April 1 – 2, and 5 on April 3 – 6.

Sunspot numbers for February 24 – March 2 were 23, 22, 22, 48, 65, 62, and 66, with a mean of 44. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 92.3, 96.2, 96.5, 96.9, 99, 99.3, and 109.5, with a mean of 98.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 3, 13, 8, 8, and 4, with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 1, 11, 5, 6, and 3, with a mean of 5.6.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.

SeaPac info

  • SEA-PAC 2022 online registration has been delayed due to technical difficulties restarting the registration web pages. SEA-PAC anticipates that online Registration will open on March 7 at 6 PM Pacific Time. SEA-PAC 2022 will host the ARRL Northwestern Division Convention June 3 – 5. The 2022 SEA-PAC QSO Party is being planned for the weekend before the event.

Solar Report 2-24-22

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: New sunspot groups appeared on February 17, 19, 20, and 21, but solar activity declined, even though sunspots were covering the sun every day.

The average daily sunspot number declined by 21 points, from 75.3 last week to 54.3 in the February 17-23 reporting week. Average daily solar flux was down by nearly 15 points, from 110.1 to 95.4.

The average daily planetary A index went from 13 to 9.6, and the average daily middle latitude A index was off by a point to 7.3.

Predicted solar flux is 100 on February 24; 105 on February 25 – March 2; 110 on March 3 – 4; 108 on March 5 – 8; 105 on March 9 – 11; 103 on March 12 – 13; 100 on March 14; 98 on March 15 – 16; 102 on March 17 – 19; 104 on March 20 – 22; 108 on March 23 – 26; 110 on March 27; 115 on March 28 – 29, then 112 and 110 on March 30 – 31.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 24 – 25; 10 on February 26; 8 on February 27 – March 2; 12, 15, 10, and 8 on March 3 – 6; 5 on March 7 – 10; 15, 12, and 10 on March 11 – 13; 5 on March 14 – 18; then 8, 5, 12, 18, 15, and 10 on March 19 – 24; 5 on March 25 – 29, and 12, 15, 10, and 8 on March 30 – April 2.

Sunspot numbers for February 17 – 23 were 103, 53, 51, 49, 48, 38, and 38, with a mean of 54.3. The 10.7 – centimeter flux was 96.7, 93.3, 95.7, 93.3, 97.8, 95.3, and 95.5, with a mean of 95.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 9, 13, 12, 16, and 6, with a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, and 4, with a mean of 7.3.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Share your reports and observations.