8-18-22 Solar Report

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week’s ARRL Propagation Bulletin:

At 2334 UTC on August 17, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

“Periods of G1 conditions expected during August 19 – 20 due to the combination of coronal hole high — speed wind stream and several coronal mass ejections observed in the last few days. There is a chance of isolated periods of G2 over August 19 – 20.”

Local TV newscasts in Seattle noted the possibility of an aurora on Thursday night, although observers would need to travel to dark areas away from the city for any chance of successful viewing. In fact, they recommended using a camera pointed north using a long exposure time.

Last week, we noted increasing solar activity, and it continued. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 65.4 to 95.6, and average daily solar flux increased from 111.9 to 123.7.

Predicted solar flux is 125 on August 18 – 19; 120 on August 20; 115 on August 21 – 23; 110 and 95 on August 24 – 25; 94 on August 26 – 27; 96, 98, 100, 108, and 114 on August 28 – September 1; 116 on September 2 – 3; 112 on September 4; 108 on September 5 – 6; 115, 120, 124, and 126 on September 7 – 10; 124 on September 11 – 12; 122, 118, 112, 108, and 102 on September 13 – 17, and 100 on September 18 – 19.

Predicted planetary A index is 56 (!), 30, 18, and 8 on August 18 – 21; 5 on August 22 – 26; 12 on August 27; 8 on August 28 – 30; 5 on August 31 – September 2; 24, 28, 18, and 10 on September 3 – 6; 14, 8, 10, and 8 on September 7 – 10; 5, 5, 20, and 15 on September 11 – 14; 12, 12, and 8 on September 15 – 17, and 5 on September 18 – 20.

Tamitha Skov says, “Don’t worry, this is not a Carrington Event,” in an 84-minute video titled, “Incoming Solar Storm Crush.”

Even Newsweek is reporting it.

And of course, British Tabloids

and NOAA.

Sunspot numbers for August 11 – 17, 2022, were 58, 97, 116, 104, 92, 119, and 83, with a mean of 95.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 114.8, 119.5, 124.2, 125.5, 130.6, 128.5, and 122.7, with a mean of 123.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 7, 10, 7, 6, 5, and 31, with a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 10, 9, 6, 5, and 22, with a mean of 10.

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…” and check out the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

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