4-14-22 Solar Report

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, Washington, reports:

At 0010 UTC on April 14, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued

This Solar Dynamics Observatory Image was taken on April 14, 2022. [Photo courtesy of NASA SDO/HMI]

a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning that stated, “Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal mass ejection from April 14 – 15 2022.”

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this reporting week (April 7 -13), although solar activity was not really down, Instead, there were solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) every day, causing disruptions to HF radio communication.

There was a new sunspot appearance on April 7, and another on each day from April 11 – 13. Yet, average daily sunspot numbers declined from 94.6 to 34.4, and average daily solar flux dropped from 135.3 to 103.1.

Average daily planetary A index increased from 14.4 to 15.9. Average middle latitude A index, measured at a single magnetometer in Virginia, went from 10.9 last week to 12.6 this week.

The latest solar flux prediction from the US Air Force Space Weather Squadron, via he National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), shows modest activity for the next month at 100, 103, 105, and 106 on April 14 – 17; 105 on April 18 – 19; 108 and 106 on April 20 – 21; 110 on April 22 – 23; 115 on April 24; 118 on April 25 – 28; 116 on April 29 through May 6; 112 and 98 on May 7- 8; 95 on May 9 – 11; 98 and 102 on May 12 – 13, and 106 on May 14 – 18.

Predicted planetary A index is 35, 20, 12, 8, and 5 on April 14 – 18; 10, 8, 10, 5, 15, 10, and 8 on April 19 – 25; 5 on April 26 – 28; 18, 12, and 8 on April 29 through May 1; 5 on May 2 – 5; 8, 15, and 12 on May 6 – 8; 5 on May 9 – 11; 12 and 8 on May 12 – 13; 5 on May 14 – 16, and 10 on May 17 – 18.

Sunspot numbers for April 7 – 13 were 52, 55, 37, 13, 24, 23, and 37, with a mean of 34.4. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 111.1, 108.9, 107.1, 101.1, 98.7, 96.2, and 98.7, with a mean of 103.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 15, 9, 19, 34, 13, 12, and 9, with a mean of 15.9. Middle latitude A index was 12, 9, 17, 18, 13, 10, and 9, with a mean of 12.6.